Tracking of drop rates

Players have tracked tens of thousands of attempts.

It works out to around 33%. Your individual results may vary due to small sample sizes.

"Scuttlebutt;c-1971295" wrote:

"jkray622;c-1971268" wrote:
Players have tracked tens of thousands of attempts.

It works out to around 33%. Your individual results may vary due to small sample sizes.

Is there a database on discord or somewhere that you know of that has the results from these attempts?

I ask because I’m wondering if 20 energy hard nodes characters have a lower drop rate than lesser energy ones. I’ve questioned it before, but recently (in the summer) I started farming Rose and droideka on the same day doing 5 attempts per day. About a month in, I decide to increase droideka to 10 per day. A week after that, I increased Rose as well. Yesterday, Rose finished, but I still needed 12 more on Droideka.

That's a noise level difference. Inconsequential.

The drop rates are 33%

Kyno close this thread.

I haven't collected drops in several months--it became too tedious--but did so for over a year with a total of 10,070 Light/Dark node attempts, 4177 Cantina node attempts, and 1568 Fleet node attempts. Here are the results (note, I didn't do any 8-energy Cantina nodes in that stretch of time):



So, the short answer, is basically, that the energy per node doesn't matter, and neither does the node type. Hope this clears that up.

For the morbidly curious, the Percentile column is simply a measure of how many possible outcomes have fewer successes, similar to how some standardized exams are scored. In this case, it is also a roundabout measure of the likeliness of getting that result, based on statistical probability. A percentile of 50% means that you exactly hit the expectation of 1 in 3 successes, whereas a percentile of 97% means that there is only a 3% (100% - 97%) chance of getting better. If there were no statistical variation (meaning this was deterministic), one would get 50% for all of the percentiles. Most of the percentiles are relatively near 50%, so these are not unlikely results. Only the 20-energy Light/Dark and the 20-energy Fleet nodes could be considered somewhat atypical under the assumption of 1/3 success rate. One is high, though, and one is low. In the end, the total percent drop rate is pretty consistent (and varies more with smaller sample size).

And some days are good with 80%drop rate. But people complain on forum when they get that 0/25 not when they get 20/25

I can’t understand the problem. If @Eddiemundie want track the rate and share with us, he would be free to do it. The science don’t learn because other say “this is the way”. It need practice, not trolls claim close the thread!.
Item more, if you can’t see the code and didn’t track anything, you never know the exact rate. May be 30,29,34%...
Pls @Eddiemundie, do it.

"twstdbydsn;c-1971357" wrote:
A dude in my guild's alliance went 5/5 2 days in a row with Fallen Bastilla. I've never been that lucky.

The odds of getting 10 shards in row are approximated 59,049 to 1 (imagine a pedantic C-3PO voice, if you like). If you have 50 guild members, who have all been active for 3 years or so (1000+ days) and have done, say 30 attempts each day, then (on average) it's probably happened to three guildmates. So, all in all, not unexpected.

"JDIII;c-1971372" wrote:
Some random stranger saying he pulled this much on this day, and that much on that day isn’t real data. I can say that my drops were 4/5 for a certain character for 3 months straight, it don’t make it data. A lot of players said that the drop rates are about 33%, and a lot of players said it isn’t.

And only one of those groups of players has any data to back up their stance. But clearly your fellow players who have crowd-sourced the data gathering are all lying to support this giant conspiracy around drop rates

"DarjeloSalas;c-1971356" wrote:
Shaak Ti went into her fleet node on 24 August. I’ve done exactly 10 sims per day from that day forward.

380 sims, 140 shards. 36.8% drop rate.

Nerf drop rates!

570, 165, ~29% drop rate.
I see you've been taking my shards there bud...

"Scuttlebutt;c-1971295" wrote:

"jkray622;c-1971268" wrote:
Players have tracked tens of thousands of attempts.

It works out to around 33%. Your individual results may vary due to small sample sizes.

Is there a database on discord or somewhere that you know of that has the results from these attempts?

I ask because I’m wondering if 20 energy hard nodes characters have a lower drop rate than lesser energy ones. I’ve questioned it before, but recently (in the summer) I started farming Rose and droideka on the same day doing 5 attempts per day. About a month in, I decide to increase droideka to 10 per day. A week after that, I increased Rose as well. Yesterday, Rose finished, but I still needed 12 more on Droideka.

330 versus 318 shards. Under 4% difference. That's well within normal statistical variation for a sample of this size.