The Logray problem

The logray problem is just a fallacy by people who want everything instantaneously

"vincentlondon;c-1739618" wrote:
Logray is garbage anyway

Woah woah woah there

"Gcdevil;c-1749435" wrote:
The logray problem is just a fallacy by people who want everything instantaneously

The little booger is hiding from me at the moment That's a problem. I want him naoooooow!!!!! :D

I feel the characters farmable only in guild store should have a permanent slot there like Starck and Young Han do

Chance for there to be no drops in a week = (5/6)^28 = 0.0061
Average time to farm = 330/(28*(1/6)*5) = 14.14 weeks
Chance to see no drops in a week during farm = 14.14 * 0.0061 = 0.086
Lets take a wild guess there are 1 mil players of which 1% are farming Logrey...
No. Players seeing no drops in a week = 1000000 * 0.01 * 0.086 = 858
Chance of being a complain on a forum type of person = 1%
Number of complainers = 0.01 * 858 = 8.58

If you count some of the complaints on this thread as sort of half complaints that's almost exactly the number we have!!!!!!

Maths Jokes!!! Yay! :smiley:

"EduardoCadav;c-1750997" wrote:
Chance for there to be no drops in a week = (5/6)^28 = 0.0061
Average time to farm = 330/(28*(1/6)*5) = 14.14 weeks
Chance to see no drops in a week during farm = 14.14 * 0.0061 = 0.086
Lets take a wild guess there are 1 mil players of which 1% are farming Logrey...
No. Players seeing no drops in a week = 1000000 * 0.01 * 0.086 = 858
Chance of being a complain on a forum type of person = 1%
Number of complainers = 0.01 * 858 = 8.58

If you count some of the complaints on this thread as sort of half complaints that's almost exactly the number we have!!!!!!

Maths Jokes!!! Yay! :smiley:

Math jokes don't work on the complainers. They don't understand math, drop rates, or statistics.

"mvmss;c-1751958" wrote:
It cannot be a coincidence. The odds would be too great.

I need another 70 shards and he has appeared 2x in the past 3 weeks - I check every refresh.

My guildmates who are also farming him are claiming the same drop rates, around 1x/week.

Apparently no one can ever win the lottery or be struck by lightning. The odds of those happening are much lower than you getting Logray twice every 3 weeks.

And yet...given a large enough sample size, these incredibly low-odd occurrences do happen.

There could be a player who has never had Logray appear in his store.

"Kalano;c-1752235" wrote:
I cannot spare guild tokens on shards atm ?

You'll always need gear but you won't always need shards

It's not that people don't understand statistics. It's simply that people don't trust what they're being told

"JediMindTricks;c-1756157" wrote:
Logray is only a problem if you haven’t farmed him from the first day he was added to guild shipments. If that is the case...then the real problem is the choice players made to farm gear or other shards rather than lograys shards. You can’t blame ea for that only yourselves.

I had logray shards farmed since day 1 of him being added. When the event came all I had to do was farm gear.

My motto: Farm everything now and gear them later. Do this and you’ll never miss out on an event again. Unless it’s an event like Revans where you don’t get a full 2 weeks to farm a full faction squad before the event goes live. In that case you’re forced to spend money(like I had to do), or maybe you’re forced to spend your hoarded crystals stash(like people I know did)...or even worse you’re forced to miss out on the event all together(like a huge percentage of the community did).

Either way: Farm everything the day it becomes farmable and gear later is something that helps when trying to keep up and stay ahead when progressing your roster.

I couldn't tell you when he was added to the shop to be honest. This is my 13th month of playing. The first few months ewoks weren't on the radar really. I was considering them, then they did the rework of mods and ships and they became much less important so there was never a need to start. Then they add a Legendary requiring them and you had 2-3 weeks advance notice.

There's no shortage of things to farm for, i mean they're at what? 10 legendaries now? More? Personally, not a big fan of adding like 4 in 4 months. Simply too much if you weren't around from the get go or aren't throwing around gobs of cash.

In august/september i just go around to FO for BB8 and was about to start on JTR and then, Revan, Chewy, 3po, and MF in successive months. unless you already had all of them (and you couldn't really for revan) you had to farm and there's no way to farm all that in that timeframe without spending like a drunken sailor. If you'd been around 2-3 years or so, yeah, most were possible. 9 months or less? no.