Investor lesson to Sims 4 players, aka wheres my new Sims 4 info?!
If there is one thing different between the active development of Sims 3 and the Sims 4 content - its social media and everything that comes with it. Its a platform that literally has changed the world that can create wars and rattle the stock market.
(Skip to the bottom for TLDR.)
For the most part as a casual Sims 4 player (and hardcore Sims 3 player) I honestly don't follow EA social media, unless a new expansion is announced and I want more info on it.
As a non-Sims 4 player I could easily find good reason to follow EA social media, reasons I hate the gaming industry for - but first some background info on me.
Plainly I have expendable income (yes I'm single and no overhead besides 3 bills/rent/cell/gas? so that helps me lol) and dabble in the market trading on my cellphone when I'm standing around for 8-12hrs waiting for the perfect shot or for the talent to go walk their dog (I work in the BC, Canada film industry...though I did get to drive the Impala (for supernatural) a couple weeks back to location - that was fun!)
Anyway I do a lot of research in my free time on investments both long and short term. I wanted to share a quick lesson as an investor about how any little bit of news effects a companies stock value and more importantly how this relates to you as Sims 4 players.
News about the sims 4 or specifically a new product/addition to the game is taken very differently as an investor vs a player. For a player its reason to get excited or look forward to some gameplay mechanic you've wanted.
As an investor who starts at a base buy in at 10K within a larger portfolio like I do and I'm not rich by any means - so I take social news/announcements very differently then as a player would. Even if my investment is very small vs what the real investors do we both take all news very seriously including my neighbor who focuses most of his time on his foundation at minimum buy-in at 100K when he sees a "maybe" good purchase (which btw when you spend most of your free time shaking hands talking about your foundation I think we can call that retirement).
So lets do some role playing, your me and you've just purchased 125 shares valued at $78 each totaling a purchase of $9750 (I'm rounding the base btw but yes cents matter). Yes, this would be same day (January 3) the stock fell the after EA CEO Andrew Wilson sold 9,000 shares the day before. They were at $80 then, its a loss of only $2 but good time to buy-in especially with a possible indirect news announcement from Maxis via twitch will spread across social media and increase - value even a little.
The stock climbed leading up to the Guru Garage which has previously revealed new content, for players that means ooh new shiny objects - for investors that means capital gains. Or well perhaps better put a form of capital speculation. Theres a few reasons for this climb, everything is related but you've just spent roughly 10k on 125 shares of EA - your watching news for a new release or hints of things to come.
The stock continued to climb rising to 89.02 January 8 and opening at 89.99 on January 9. Despite the lack of new content and community feedback the stock only fell a dollar and rose before days end. Its sitting around $81 currently with 2 financial news reports on EA being released before the weekend which has helped it maintain $91. Any news helps or hurts.
BUT You've just made $1,625 in 10 days. That $9750 you spent is now worth $11,375.
I literally did, just a little bit under actually due to taxes. The trade cost me $9.99.
I knew there was a chance of something new being announced. I knew it would raise the share's value even if it was minor because it generated interest. Its true the stock fell on Jan 9 and it could be argued this was due to community backlash but the stock has climbed regardless.
I literally don't care at this point if the community is happy or not with Sims 4 development, I care about how active the community is because that means the game is still generating interest - which means its still profitable. More to the point simgurukate post reflected that they are listening and interacting with the community - which tells me very good things. If the community didn't respond, if there was no reply from Maxis I'd have taken that as negative news instead.
Now for another real life example on May 24 the Sims 4 seasons was announced. A month before release. Between announcement and release shares rose from $131 to $141. Ea shares peaked at $149 mid July.
This announcement and release date weren't made randomly though - EA was about to release its earnings report on July 26 revealing a "guidance miss" spooking investors. In plain terms that means they didn't reach their profit targets. Which created a sell off resulting in the stock plunging to $126. From $149. The stock would continue to plunge hitting rock bottom when it was announced battlefield was being delayed to Nov 20 with its value share sitting at $113 and falling to $80 day of release.
Thats a huge loss. Even the loss of $10 based on a social tweet is insane (but not really) the market is all about what you hear and where you hear it from. The sims 4 Seasons announcement and release wasn't just made randomly by Maxis managers, it was by financial design.
My point is for the company, announcements effect the health of its shares. Its for these reasons we as Sims 4 players don't just randomly get new announcements whenever something new is in development or by the team to pacify the community.
Yes its annoying as can be as a player, it drove me up the wall before I became involved in the market that the industry was so tied to the market. Honestly I completely believe any game company the answers to the market has lost is creative soul and ability to innovate without fear of failure and losing its company value on the market. Suddenly its not about the gamers but keeping investors happy.
On this note...
Anthem is a huge gamble for EA. Its been play tested to death in closed beta sessions for example to get as much feedback as possible before release. I've literally received a playtest invite every week for the last few months in my email for the burnaby location. It needs to be successful because if its poorly received...well... take this in mind. The insider selling (aka people who work at EA) for the last 3 months has been noted as very high, hinting that something might be bothering insiders. For example they sold 57,343 shares while purchases amounted to zero shares that period. Now over 12 months, corporate insiders offloaded 1,868,617 shares when buyers snapped up 261,867 shares. The 12-month’s totals signify about a 7.14-to-1 sell/buy ratio.
With a peak ratio sell off in 3 months before a major release to a new IP it would spook me as a investor. I suspect the shares value will continue to rise leading to Anthem but based on the current market (aka Fortnite aka same player type base) and lack of social chatter on it besides loot box fears, plus failure of Battlefield player mechanics spooking potential players a month before launch and the insanity that a metacritic score can destroy a new AAA games sales added to insider sell off - ya I'm out.
I've sold off my shares but I had fun making $1625 in two weeks. Its peanuts for full time investors but it payed my rent for the month and only cost me $9.99.
So what the heck does all this mean to you, the loyal Sims 4 player?
TLDR : Share interests come first for public announcements. Sims 4 community comes last, this will never change as long as EA is a public company.
I should note, I'd wager most of the staff at Maxis aren't 100% aware or think about these dynamics (unless they manage there portfolio actively, but most employees who are given company stock don't tend to pay attention to it until they leave or in a role of management hence more stock offers.) Rather they see it as being legally tied up by company lawyers and NDA's to pass information along to the community. Plus game designs, features change in development so its easier/safer to release information closer to release from their point of view I suspect. But unless your invested actively in the market most people don't understand these dynamics but the moment you are - every word a company utters makes you stare at share prices.
P.S I hope you enjoyed this lesson, it might not make you any "happier" about how things are but I hope it explains the inner workers of EA decisions. The real money is in the market and the market is just another game simmers!
Knowledge is power ;)
(Skip to the bottom for TLDR.)
For the most part as a casual Sims 4 player (and hardcore Sims 3 player) I honestly don't follow EA social media, unless a new expansion is announced and I want more info on it.
As a non-Sims 4 player I could easily find good reason to follow EA social media, reasons I hate the gaming industry for - but first some background info on me.
Plainly I have expendable income (yes I'm single and no overhead besides 3 bills/rent/cell/gas? so that helps me lol) and dabble in the market trading on my cellphone when I'm standing around for 8-12hrs waiting for the perfect shot or for the talent to go walk their dog (I work in the BC, Canada film industry...though I did get to drive the Impala (for supernatural) a couple weeks back to location - that was fun!)
Anyway I do a lot of research in my free time on investments both long and short term. I wanted to share a quick lesson as an investor about how any little bit of news effects a companies stock value and more importantly how this relates to you as Sims 4 players.
News about the sims 4 or specifically a new product/addition to the game is taken very differently as an investor vs a player. For a player its reason to get excited or look forward to some gameplay mechanic you've wanted.
As an investor who starts at a base buy in at 10K within a larger portfolio like I do and I'm not rich by any means - so I take social news/announcements very differently then as a player would. Even if my investment is very small vs what the real investors do we both take all news very seriously including my neighbor who focuses most of his time on his foundation at minimum buy-in at 100K when he sees a "maybe" good purchase (which btw when you spend most of your free time shaking hands talking about your foundation I think we can call that retirement).
So lets do some role playing, your me and you've just purchased 125 shares valued at $78 each totaling a purchase of $9750 (I'm rounding the base btw but yes cents matter). Yes, this would be same day (January 3) the stock fell the after EA CEO Andrew Wilson sold 9,000 shares the day before. They were at $80 then, its a loss of only $2 but good time to buy-in especially with a possible indirect news announcement from Maxis via twitch will spread across social media and increase - value even a little.
The stock climbed leading up to the Guru Garage which has previously revealed new content, for players that means ooh new shiny objects - for investors that means capital gains. Or well perhaps better put a form of capital speculation. Theres a few reasons for this climb, everything is related but you've just spent roughly 10k on 125 shares of EA - your watching news for a new release or hints of things to come.
The stock continued to climb rising to 89.02 January 8 and opening at 89.99 on January 9. Despite the lack of new content and community feedback the stock only fell a dollar and rose before days end. Its sitting around $81 currently with 2 financial news reports on EA being released before the weekend which has helped it maintain $91. Any news helps or hurts.
BUT You've just made $1,625 in 10 days. That $9750 you spent is now worth $11,375.
I literally did, just a little bit under actually due to taxes. The trade cost me $9.99.
I knew there was a chance of something new being announced. I knew it would raise the share's value even if it was minor because it generated interest. Its true the stock fell on Jan 9 and it could be argued this was due to community backlash but the stock has climbed regardless.
I literally don't care at this point if the community is happy or not with Sims 4 development, I care about how active the community is because that means the game is still generating interest - which means its still profitable. More to the point simgurukate post reflected that they are listening and interacting with the community - which tells me very good things. If the community didn't respond, if there was no reply from Maxis I'd have taken that as negative news instead.
Now for another real life example on May 24 the Sims 4 seasons was announced. A month before release. Between announcement and release shares rose from $131 to $141. Ea shares peaked at $149 mid July.
This announcement and release date weren't made randomly though - EA was about to release its earnings report on July 26 revealing a "guidance miss" spooking investors. In plain terms that means they didn't reach their profit targets. Which created a sell off resulting in the stock plunging to $126. From $149. The stock would continue to plunge hitting rock bottom when it was announced battlefield was being delayed to Nov 20 with its value share sitting at $113 and falling to $80 day of release.
Thats a huge loss. Even the loss of $10 based on a social tweet is insane (but not really) the market is all about what you hear and where you hear it from. The sims 4 Seasons announcement and release wasn't just made randomly by Maxis managers, it was by financial design.
My point is for the company, announcements effect the health of its shares. Its for these reasons we as Sims 4 players don't just randomly get new announcements whenever something new is in development or by the team to pacify the community.
Yes its annoying as can be as a player, it drove me up the wall before I became involved in the market that the industry was so tied to the market. Honestly I completely believe any game company the answers to the market has lost is creative soul and ability to innovate without fear of failure and losing its company value on the market. Suddenly its not about the gamers but keeping investors happy.
On this note...
Anthem is a huge gamble for EA. Its been play tested to death in closed beta sessions for example to get as much feedback as possible before release. I've literally received a playtest invite every week for the last few months in my email for the burnaby location. It needs to be successful because if its poorly received...well... take this in mind. The insider selling (aka people who work at EA) for the last 3 months has been noted as very high, hinting that something might be bothering insiders. For example they sold 57,343 shares while purchases amounted to zero shares that period. Now over 12 months, corporate insiders offloaded 1,868,617 shares when buyers snapped up 261,867 shares. The 12-month’s totals signify about a 7.14-to-1 sell/buy ratio.
With a peak ratio sell off in 3 months before a major release to a new IP it would spook me as a investor. I suspect the shares value will continue to rise leading to Anthem but based on the current market (aka Fortnite aka same player type base) and lack of social chatter on it besides loot box fears, plus failure of Battlefield player mechanics spooking potential players a month before launch and the insanity that a metacritic score can destroy a new AAA games sales added to insider sell off - ya I'm out.
I've sold off my shares but I had fun making $1625 in two weeks. Its peanuts for full time investors but it payed my rent for the month and only cost me $9.99.
So what the heck does all this mean to you, the loyal Sims 4 player?
TLDR : Share interests come first for public announcements. Sims 4 community comes last, this will never change as long as EA is a public company.
I should note, I'd wager most of the staff at Maxis aren't 100% aware or think about these dynamics (unless they manage there portfolio actively, but most employees who are given company stock don't tend to pay attention to it until they leave or in a role of management hence more stock offers.) Rather they see it as being legally tied up by company lawyers and NDA's to pass information along to the community. Plus game designs, features change in development so its easier/safer to release information closer to release from their point of view I suspect. But unless your invested actively in the market most people don't understand these dynamics but the moment you are - every word a company utters makes you stare at share prices.
P.S I hope you enjoyed this lesson, it might not make you any "happier" about how things are but I hope it explains the inner workers of EA decisions. The real money is in the market and the market is just another game simmers!
Knowledge is power ;)
