I've been having this problem since the new save structure and the ability to restore back ups has come out (I chose save as, select the file to save over and it saves over random other saves). I have a lot of different saves for different challenges/let's plays/etc. Usually what will work is that I choose 'save as' then select the file I want to save over and then I retype the name, however this doesn't always work. I seldom use 'save' unless I've saved as a new file name and then I may use save. However, when it doesn't work, I start looking at the names of the files (vs the families depicted) and then if the name for the save doesn't match the family depicted I go in and recover any saves that seem to match when I remember last playing. Or I just randomly look and try to find saves in the recover option that match the date. I've mostly been able to find my 'lost' saves that way, but not always.
As for information, I do occasionally use MCC (only mod ever in my game and no cc ever), but I currently don't have it and hadn't added it to my game when this feature was initially released and I started having problems then but didn't know where to report it. I do have a lot of saves so my saves file is large; I recently tried deleting a bunch of older saves after backing them up elsewhere but then I found I couldn't restore from back up for most of my recent saves which then meant I couldn't find saves I needed when I had the problem noted above. So I now have most of my saves back in my saves folder (apart from a bunch I removed after backing up during summer of 2016). I'm on Windows 10, my game is fully updated and I have all the packs. I regularly clear my game cache (almost every time before I play) and I repair my game regularly and do the occasional factory reset of my game (just did one due to another issue).
Thanks and regards,
Jennifer