Question to KEM farmers

"DaveF-2016;1591868" wrote:
a year....awww man.... may as well quit now...

Thanks for the pep talk though, i'm not in a rush yet, up to the level 47 quests and have to build something else as well, I tend to wait until I turn the collider on, build about three or four buildings that come up to help with the XP, then spend a couple of weeks clearing those tasks out of the book... I've got a week off coming up soon, so who knows, if I can save enough money in the meantime, I might give the collider a 7 or 10 day trial

Anytime. Also feel free PM anytime I can help. Any Dave is a friend of mine ;) Id go for the 10, 7 is kinda waste between the 2. I always get 10 (just got 2-10s tonight) in my main town, but can only afford and can efficiently use 1 day in my crawl town. I save money all week and go on a KEM binge the 1 day in my crawl town. Went up almost 50 levels last week in less then 24 hours (58-101)

"DaveF-2016;1591688" wrote:
Nice call on the bonuts though, when you get to a point where 100k could get you another round or two, then why waste them chasing a third doughnut when you got two on your first pick, i'll keep that in mind for when I finally reach 939..

I always buy boxes to get to three donuts. I know I can create KEMs more cheaply, but I will always exchange $ for donuts. Besides, even doing this and building tons of KEMs per cycle, I'm still closing in on $200 mil. It saves trouble later.

"wiedmannaj;1592023" wrote:

"DaveF-2016;1591688" wrote:
Nice call on the bonuts though, when you get to a point where 100k could get you another round or two, then why waste them chasing a third doughnut when you got two on your first pick, i'll keep that in mind for when I finally reach 939..

I always buy boxes to get to three donuts. I know I can create KEMs more cheaply, but I will always exchange $ for donuts. Besides, even doing this and building tons of KEMs per cycle, I'm still closing in on $200 mil. It saves trouble later.

I'll see how my money situation is when I get there, there's always I chance I could 'bloodmobile myself into oblivion' as one poster wrote in another thread :lol:

"daved7637397;1591987" wrote:

"DaveF-2016;1591868" wrote:
a year....awww man.... may as well quit now...

Thanks for the pep talk though, i'm not in a rush yet, up to the level 47 quests and have to build something else as well, I tend to wait until I turn the collider on, build about three or four buildings that come up to help with the XP, then spend a couple of weeks clearing those tasks out of the book... I've got a week off coming up soon, so who knows, if I can save enough money in the meantime, I might give the collider a 7 or 10 day trial

Anytime. Also feel free PM anytime I can help. Any Dave is a friend of mine ;) Id go for the 10, 7 is kinda waste between the 2. I always get 10 (just got 2-10s tonight) in my main town, but can only afford and can efficiently use 1 day in my crawl town. I save money all week and go on a KEM binge the 1 day in my crawl town. Went up almost 50 levels last week in less then 24 hours (58-101)

Thanks, i'll bear that in mind

For clarification, the cost of ensuring 3 bonuts is $50k on average.

Note, this assumes that the probability of the 3 donut choice is equally spread across the boxes, which in my experience is not the case.

"sflowers330;1592069" wrote:
Note, this assumes that the probability of the 3 donut choice is equally spread across the boxes, which in my experience is not the case.

Are you willing to share your theory on this? The only thing I've noticed is that the results feel slightly streaky, so I usually try to pick the same box as the previous 3 donut location. If that doesn't work, I sometimes do the opposite for the second try and go for least recent one, if I can remember that far back, or else choose randomly for the second attempt. This is, however, just based on feelings, not backed up with evidence!

"girl22721;1592084" wrote:


Are you willing to share your theory on this? The only thing I've noticed is that the results feel slightly streaky, so I usually try to pick the same box as the previous 3 donut location. If that doesn't work, I sometimes do the opposite for the second try and go for least recent one, if I can remember that far back, or else choose randomly for the second attempt. This is, however, just based on feelings, not backed up with evidence!

I'm enough of a nerd that I did track it for a while, and the #s I got match closely to your gut feeling. Over the course of about 1000 boxes, the distribution of my 'first choice' was almost evenly split between 1, 2, or 3.

I also had numerous 'streaks' like you describe, which in a reasonably random system should occur. I think the problem is that we all remember bad events more distinctly than good ones, so those times you get 1 donut in the first box you pick 8 times in a row, that stands out more in memory than the hot streaks, but after tracking it for a bit I felt confident it was very close to evenly spread out.

I also have found it to be "streaky" however its never been consistant enough to accurately predict. Just when tou find a certain number of donuts, that number tends to stay in the same position, but for how long and when is never consistent enought to predict.

"moviefansam;1592099" wrote:

"girl22721;1592084" wrote:


Are you willing to share your theory on this? The only thing I've noticed is that the results feel slightly streaky, so I usually try to pick the same box as the previous 3 donut location. If that doesn't work, I sometimes do the opposite for the second try and go for least recent one, if I can remember that far back, or else choose randomly for the second attempt. This is, however, just based on feelings, not backed up with evidence!

I'm enough of a nerd that I did track it for a while, and the #s I got match closely to your gut feeling. Over the course of about 1000 boxes, the distribution of my 'first choice' was almost evenly split between 1, 2, or 3.

I also had numerous 'streaks' like you describe, which in a reasonably random system should occur. I think the problem is that we all remember bad events more distinctly than good ones, so those times you get 1 donut in the first box you pick 8 times in a row, that stands out more in memory than the hot streaks, but after tracking it for a bit I felt confident it was very close to evenly spread out.

Just for grins, I also made note tracked this for a while, but my sample size was smaller — about 200. But the results were the same as yours — an even split between Positions 1, 2, and 3.

I know it’s been said before, but perhaps it bears repeating. There have been over the years a slew of scientific studies showing that humans are in various ways predisposed to try and causally interpret events that are, in fact, totally random.

"girl22721;1592084" wrote:

"sflowers330;1592069" wrote:
Note, this assumes that the probability of the 3 donut choice is equally spread across the boxes, which in my experience is not the case.

Are you willing to share your theory on this? The only thing I've noticed is that the results feel slightly streaky, so I usually try to pick the same box as the previous 3 donut location. If that doesn't work, I sometimes do the opposite for the second try and go for least recent one, if I can remember that far back, or else choose randomly for the second attempt. This is, however, just based on feelings, not backed up with evidence!

Ive been shouted down before, but I don't mind sharing my experience, I'm not trying to convince anyone anymore. Your mileage may vary.....

My observations:
I recorded 300 or so bonus boxes and the results % were 37, 43, 20 (L,C,R). So I altered my choice behavior to match that: center, left then right. I've done about 3000 boxes since then and observed that my average cost for getting 3 bonuts was somewhere around or below 30k, which is less than the 50k it should be for a perfect random distribution.

My theory
No patterns so to speak but not a properly pseudo random distribution which ends up distorting the outcome.

I agree it definitely feels streaky sometimes, and I've been known to chase them sometimes lol

My 0.02