People often bring it up, even though evidence tends to contradict it being present, but this is why such systems as EA’s EBMM methods were created.
When you look at people’s complaints with compact in games that implement that other system, it’s often that matches are loaded against them most of the time, then they god-roll, then back to being stomped.
I think SBMM in it’s current state is far more healthy a system.
Apex prioritizes matching with similar skills, but will not dawdle to do so. Load times are intended to stay as far down as possible, seeing a match queue over 1 minute outside of ranked is a bad thing by their system.
I tend to use the visualization of a trapezoid to explain how I see this systems effects in action. The small base is your own skill, plus and minus a range of acceptable values. As time increases, the other base grows at a uniform rate, widening the range of acceptable values. Overlapping with another player’s range means you will be an adequate match.
i.e.:
Skill level: 2.1
T0: 2.1+/- 0.2
T5: 2.1+/- 0.6
T10: 2.1+/- 1.4
T15: 2.1+/- 2.5
ect.
This would result in an exponential growth in acceptable ranges in a very small window of time. While similar skills will be matched with earlier on, the longer it takes the more skill in a lobby will vary.
I think I can say confidently that the common “matches with preds” trope, and the frequent I got put into a hot lobby is simply from this situation. A player is on at a poor time for matching with similar skills, so they end up “reaching” farther towards the extremes of the skill range.