No heirloom? Playing since season 1 to still have no herilooms

To be guaranteed a set of heirloom shards, 500 Apex packs need to be opened. There's a very small chance of any pack containing shards, but hitting the 500 pack guarantee is often what happens. 

Free players can earn up to 200 packs from levelling to 500, as well as bonus packs in the BPs, 

I have been playing since almost day 1 i have hit 110 every season I am at 500 waiting for an update to that hopefully soon gives us something to work for. But have spend a couple hundred dollars and still no heirloom id be amazed if I have not opened 500 packs please advice

Me too open well over 500 and put mabey about 100 quid with battle passes and packs but still nothing hit 500 lvl to don't think I'm ever getting one still play another tho

I'm far Away from 500 Packs(maybe have ~350), but I read about a bug, the Pack animation stuck and after some seconds it restarts with low content... the rumor say it's should be a Heirloom Set, I think I've already experienced something like that... 💩

Anyway, i don't like heirlooms, this animation is just annoying.

@EA_David 

How can you tell how many packs you have opened?

I also am well over level 500, have had battlepasses for most of the seasons and still no heirloom shards.

@Irres169 

If you are lvl 500 bought ALL battlepasses from S1-S8 and maxed them out, you would have opened a little over 300 packs.  Also, many people assume that you gradually have an increasingly higher chance of getting a heirloom as you approach the 500th pack which probably isnt true. You will have the same probability of getting one on the first pack you ever opened and the 499th pack you open. Another false assumption I see many make is that the chance of getting a Heirloom in pack 1 to 499 is 1/500. But Respawn never said this; they  just said that if you havent got one after 499 packs, you are guaranteed one in your 500, which ofc isnt the same as saying that the general heirloom drop rate is 1/500.