@OldTreeCreeper wrote:How can it not be Independant, as a packs number opened is a number lost into the ether and has no bearing on the next packs outcome? Other than pack 500. And with packs are we not talking about whole numbers?
So first of all it cannot be independent because you are guaranteed to get an heirloom on pack 500. Which is indeed what I was referring to.
But more annoyingly,there is no actual way to know whether pack 1, pack 239 and pack 456 actually have the same probability.
All we know is that when you open a pack sometimes you get shards.
There is some RNG box which spits out whether or not you get one and we don't know how it works!
I'm making the assumption in my model that they have the same probability, but that's in no way guaranteed.
Another option would be that the probability starts out lower but slowly ramps up as you open more packs. How could we possibly know without Respawn telling us
@Anjunakrokus I'm not sure that there's a true rng at play here. Youngtree's 2 friends bought 150 packs in event and both got a heirloom at pack 7. I do not know their pack count.
I'm not sure how you can conclude that most real heirlooms are got between packs 320 and 440, and not in fact in pack 500. Anecdotally very few get the heirloom early and it is strange that a pack counter is not available ingame.
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