@vmblackstar You'll get about 199 free apex packs by leveling up to level 500. You would need to purchase an additional 301 packs or so in order to trigger the heirloom guarantee.
There are three ways to get heirlooms.
1. You get insanely lucky from an Apex Pack and get one (the odds of this happening are very very very low), less than 1%, these odds do not increase as you open packs, it's always below 1%. I'd estimate it's in the .5% range. So every time you open a pack you have a 1 out of 200 chance at receiving an heirloom.
2. Is the guarantee, if you open 500 packs you will get a heirloom on the 500th pack.
3. is to purchase them from the events when they release heirlooms. This is typically the best deal for an heirloom.
They are rare and expensive. There is no way to increase the odds of getting a heirloom. The Apex Packs are entirely RNG based and 100% random. The way RNG work, they cycle through number sequences, when you open the pack it stop the RNG on a number sequence. Those numbers correlate with the premium content. If you stop the RNG on a number sequence for an Heirloom you will receive an heirloom.