@iamblindsonoaim To be perfectly honest with you I'm not 100% sure on the drop chances as I haven't actually opened any event specific apex packs myself as of yet. But yes I think you are correct in your thinking.
Based on what I've read in-game through the "more details" section of the event store, along with multiple discussions on Apex Legends' subreddit on the matter. I believe the correct drop rate is 1 epic or legendary event item, with 2 lots of the new crowns currency per pack. Therefore amounting to 24 event loot boxes being required for all event specific content.
