I've spent a decent amount of money on this game. I've always bought Apex packs so one day I could get a heirloom, but that day still hasn't came yet. I've bought around 200-250 packs and still nothing. Is it ever guaranteed after so many packs? Or, do you just have to be lucky? Olansi China
@RockDokRockI'll say it again, you can either have heads, or tails
Not how lootboxes work, you have like 60% chance to get one of 1000+ commons, 30% chance for like one out of 500+ rares, 10% chance to get one out of 500+ epics, like 5% chance to get one out of 200+ legendaries, and finally 0.5% chance for heirloom shards.
Just because you opened 10 packs and got 3 commons 10 times in a row that suddenly mathematicaly you deserve to get a rare, you can still get 3 commons.
The chance is still same, the chance for common is still high the chance of heirloom is still extremely low.
@damsonwhufndthis wrote:@RockDokRockI'll say it again, you can either have heads, or tails
Not how lootboxes work, you have like 60% chance to get one of 1000+ commons, 30% chance for like one out of 500+ rares, 10% chance to get one out of 500+ epics, like 5% chance to get one out of 200+ legendaries, and finally 0.5% chance for heirloom shards.
Just because you opened 10 packs and got 3 commons 10 times in a row that suddenly mathematicaly you deserve to get a rare, you can still get 3 commons.
The chance is still same, the chance for common is still high the chance of heirloom is still extremely low.
That's not what I am saying at all. Nothing "suddenly" changes. I've illustrated this several times. Opening a loot box is no different than a roll of the dice or flip of a coin conceptually.
Answer the simple question... again. One more time. Just answer it.
Q: If you flip a coin 10 times do you think you will have a better than 50/50 chance of seeing a heads. Yes or no?
- DR
@RockDokRockto answer you, I'll make another post 🙂
@damsonwhufndthis You don't have to. We can take this to PM or not bother or continue here. I'm not fussed either way.
- DR
I'm gonna ask everyone
@damsonwhufndthis But you've not answered my question. That's fundamental to this problem.
The question you asked just now doesn't address it at all. The chance of getting an Heirloom is so small it's inconsequential.
- DR
@DarthValtrex What is "Probable Cause"? in Math. Never heard that one.
I used basic probability theory. That's how it works. In real life it's never really 50/50 or whatever but it's close enough that what I'm saying works.
Sorry, facts don't care about your feelings.
It is not .5% chance at an heirloom with every pack. I've clearly demonstrated this. Again, it's not my fault you don't understand probability and modelling independent events (you keep saying every single time there is the same chance - that is *literally* what modelling independent events means, each invent is independent and its chance is not affected by others, you clearly don't understand probability).
Yes, you can flip a coin on its head and get 100 heads in a row... try it and post again when that happens for you.
Not really sure what to say.
- DR
@DarthValtrex Sure thing. I've described, done the calculations and shown what I am doing. All I am getting from you is assertions and claims. What are the odds then? If someone opens 250 packs what are the expected odds that they will end up with at least one heirloom after? Show me - Answer that and we can have a real discussion. Show your work, don't just arm wave and assert.
Incidentally, if 1000 people opened apex packs with a .5% chance of an heirloom there is more than a 99% chance at least one heirloom would be unpacked.
The reason many people have not gotten an heirloom is because the odds are much lower than .5%. That's ok, that's how it's supposed to work. It's supposed to be very rare.
- DR
