How many packs you need to open according to Ai for a TOTY player.
My maths is pants but here is what AI has said you need to have a very good chance of picking up an TOTY player.
Case 1: Pack odds p=1%=0.01
- 50% chance of at least one TOTY
n=ln(1−0.5)ln(1−0.01)=ln(0.5)ln(0.99)≈−0.6931−0.01005≈69
So: ~69 packs for a 50% shot.
- 90% chance of at least one TOTY
n=ln(1−0.9)ln(1−0.01)=ln(0.1)ln(0.99)≈−2.3026−0.01005≈229
So: ~229 packs for a 90% shot.
Case 2: Pack odds p=0.5%=0.005
- 50% chance
n=ln(0.5)ln(0.995)≈−0.6931−0.00501≈138
~138 packs for 50%.
- 90% chance
n=ln(0.1)ln(0.995)≈−2.3026−0.00501≈460
~460 packs for 90%.
Case 3: Pack odds p=0.1%=0.001
- 50% chance
n=ln(0.5)ln(0.999)≈−0.6931−0.0010005≈693
~693 packs for 50%.
- 90% chance
n=ln(0.1)ln(0.999)≈−2.3026−0.0010005≈2,300
~2,300 packs for 90%.
So what’s “realistic”?
Since most standard packs show “\<1%” for TOTY, a rough realistic range is:
- If odds are around 1%: ~70 packs → ~50% chance ~230 packs → ~90% chance
- If odds are closer to 0.5% or lower: You’re looking at 100–150+ packs just to get near 50%, and 400–500+ for ~90%.
There is no number of packs that guarantees a TOTY (you never hit a true 100%), but if by “guarantee a chance” you mean “I want to be heavily favoured”, then:
- I’d call ~200–250 packs the point where, at 1% odds, you’re realistically “expected” to have seen one, but still not safe.
- At worse odds (0.5% or less), even that becomes shaky.
