Change, rise or another thing for DROPRATE !

The drop rate for shards is fixed, at about one in three on a fair die.

This is a relatively uncommon randomization model in video games because humans react badly to fair dice. They're swingy buggers. But long term, luck is a myth and it more or less balances out, within a reasonable margin of error.

4 in 50 shards is a bad run to be sure, but it's just that. A bad run. The drop rate is still one in three.

If you have doubts about the drop rate, track it long term. And well before you have a statistically relevant data set, you'll have maxed all the characters you were tracking.

But I thought "Random" meant I always get one for each three attempts I just don't know on which attempt. That's right, isn't it? You're not telling me random means, I don't know, that with enough people simming enough missions enough times that someone, somewhere is always going to getting a string of bad luck! That's crazy talk.

"MasterSeedy;c-1903385" wrote:
But I thought "Random" meant I always get one for each three attempts I just don't know on which attempt. That's right, isn't it? You're not telling me random means, I don't know, that with enough people simming enough missions enough times that someone, somewhere is always going to getting a string of bad luck! That's crazy talk.

Geez, I almost took that seriously for a second lmao

Wait... This guy is mad because people who started earlier rule the game. Isn't that the way it is supposed to be?

I do find it funny though. I never see a thread about the days when people hit shards on 4/5 simulations.

@Nasdadjr

I do find it funny though. I never see a thread about the days when people hit shards on 4/5 simulations.

Exactly.

Geez, I almost took that seriously for a second lmao

All scrutable jokes are all alike, but every inscrutable joke is inscrutable in its own way.

I.e. I aim to please.

"Nasdadjr;c-1903689" wrote:
Wait... This guy is mad because people who started earlier rule the game. Isn't that the way it is supposed to be?

You compete with people at your same start date (arena) or same(ish) GP (GAC). There's no "older people rule the game."

"TVF;c-1903876" wrote:

You compete with people at your same start date (arena) or same(ish) GP (GAC). There's no "older people rule the game."

Older people do rule the game for the simple fact that they as a group have more discretionary income than younger people! ;)

There might be some bad streak, but if you're like me and have one lasting for 3 months, good luck then.
I'm still way off the 30% or so drop rate for Juhani and Carth (finally done with other OR toons and ships for MF at an average of 19%).
At this pace, I'll get Carth right when DR will show up next, and yes I'm using at least one refresh a day on his node.

@Panzer

That s u x, and I wish it wasn't happening to you.

I hope you understand that I can have a great deal of sympathy with folks going through such dry spells even while I think it's silly that some people can't seem to understand that "random" means you can't tell from your personal experience whether or not they've changed the drop rate.

The dry spell is yucky and worthy of sympathy. The inability to understand the word "random" isn't.

Best of luck going forward.