Change, rise or another thing for DROPRATE !

The drop rate for shards is fixed, at about one in three on a fair die.

This is a relatively uncommon randomization model in video games because humans react badly to fair dice. They're swingy buggers. But long term, luck is a myth and it more or less balances out, within a reasonable margin of error.

4 in 50 shards is a bad run to be sure, but it's just that. A bad run. The drop rate is still one in three.

If you have doubts about the drop rate, track it long term. And well before you have a statistically relevant data set, you'll have maxed all the characters you were tracking.

But I thought "Random" meant I always get one for each three attempts I just don't know on which attempt. That's right, isn't it? You're not telling me random means, I don't know, that with enough people simming enough missions enough times that someone, somewhere is always going to getting a string of bad luck! That's crazy talk.

"MasterSeedy;c-1903385" wrote:
But I thought "Random" meant I always get one for each three attempts I just don't know on which attempt. That's right, isn't it? You're not telling me random means, I don't know, that with enough people simming enough missions enough times that someone, somewhere is always going to getting a string of bad luck! That's crazy talk.

Geez, I almost took that seriously for a second lmao

@Nasdadjr

I do find it funny though. I never see a thread about the days when people hit shards on 4/5 simulations.

Exactly.

Geez, I almost took that seriously for a second lmao

All scrutable jokes are all alike, but every inscrutable joke is inscrutable in its own way.

I.e. I aim to please.

"TVF;c-1903876" wrote:

You compete with people at your same start date (arena) or same(ish) GP (GAC). There's no "older people rule the game."

Older people do rule the game for the simple fact that they as a group have more discretionary income than younger people! ;)

@panzer

My progression is slow due to the lack of crystals,

Mine was too, until I went all in on ships. I've been #1 almost every day for a while now (8 months, maybe?) and the difference in my ability to develop my toons is huge with the extra 400 crystals/day.

"panzer;c-1904047" wrote:
The funny thing is when you try to reach up and claim your drop rate is insanely low though you have data supporting your claim, people call you a liar. Anyway, I'll get DR/Malak eventually when they won't be meta anymore, or I will be way behind the whales for gear by that time.

What data? You've provided none.

Also I don't think that people typically respond by denying data. I think people respond by denying that your personal experience and/or limited data justifies believing that the drop rate has changed.

@jhbuchholz

I just ran a bunch of trials like this and it's true. I'd do one sim at a time and the drop rate changed wildly, from 0% to 100% and nothing in between.

Wait... This guy is mad because people who started earlier rule the game. Isn't that the way it is supposed to be?