There is a claim I have seen repeated several times on this forum that the percentage chance of a node dropping its primary reward is 30%.I remain unconvinced.Firstly, if this was the average then I would have roughly as many days above that % as I do below. That's how an average works - it's in the middle. If I see 5 days in a month dropping less than that then surely I should see at least a few days per month dropping more? But I never do.Also, it seems obvious to me that certain nodes have different drop rates from certain other nodes. Is the 30% figure supposed to be the average for each individual node or is it the average across ALL nodes? Because I'd be more willing to accept the latter but some people seem to insist it's the former.Anyway, I'm curious as to who else agrees with me that the 30% claim is wrong.

I'm not moaning about what drops I get.I'm challenging the forum figure of 30%.There's a difference. :-)

It's not an average. It's an individual rate on each attempt. You haven't tracked anything, let alone a statistically relevant sample size.

"Mando2Rebel;c-1724965" wrote:I feel a lot of the time its a confirmation bias, somedays i get more yet others i get bad but like dveryone else i can be quick to forget the good days.Bassically the moral of the story is just get on with the farm and deap with what you got without moaning :-)Possibly but there are absurdly difficult farms that are known, such as blaze, so that leads me to believe there likely are slightly different drops on "premium" characters

"Stenun;d-190500" wrote:There is a claim I have seen repeated several times on this forum that the percentage chance of a node dropping its primary reward is 30%.I remain unconvinced.Firstly, if this was the average then I would have roughly as many days above that % as I do below. That's how an average works - it's in the middle. If I see 5 days in a month dropping less than that then surely I should see at least a few days per month dropping more? But I never do.Also, it seems obvious to me that certain nodes have different drop rates from certain other nodes. Is the 30% figure supposed to be the average for each individual node or is it the average across ALL nodes? Because I'd be more willing to accept the latter but some people seem to insist it's the former.Anyway, I'm curious as to who else agrees with me that the 30% claim is wrong.My experience is that purple gear from LS/DS nodes drops at a rate of ~25%. Character shards drop consistently at roughly 33%. But I never did a comprehensive analysis because knowing any real numbers does not change anything.

"Starlord1809;c-1724974" wrote:Ill answer that question as good as i can to give you a satisfying answer. First of all - 30% is overall - there were some players in the good old days that actually tracked theyre droprrates over a year - and most likely 30% is the average droprate. There are some notes that are below or above 30% - a good example is mission vao - from my perspektive, and from many of my guildmates responses the farm was really hard. T3M4 on the other hand - feels a lot smoother - i get this feedback from my guild members aswell. So basicly mission will be around 25-27% and T3M4 at 33-35%. This is just and example - i dont recorded my numbers. But overall from my experience ...30% drop chance on Hard nodes pretty much hit the nail.....pls try to remember that your mind will always remember the ,,bad'' drop days - and will forget the ,,good'' drop days a lot sooner ;) thats how humans work xD we stick to the bad things - not to the good ahahah :D Mission seems harder cause the node costs more so you get less attemps per refresh, otherwise its the same drop rate.

I'm still not convinced ... | EA Forums

mhsiegel14
Rising Newcomer
6 years ago
Yeah ... the science part of my brain says that. Doesn't feel like it, tho.
tvsfrink
6 years ago
"Hal_10000;c-1729201" wrote:
Doesn't feel like it, tho.

This is the point - your feelings fool you. Numbers don't.
Da_Bauers
New Spectator
6 years ago
^ this guy gets it. Make this a sticky in its own thread.
AntiFunn
6 years ago
"TVF;c-1724967" wrote:
It's not an average. It's an individual rate on each attempt. You haven't tracked anything, let alone a statistically relevant sample size.

This.

That means each turn it battles out as: 30% vs 70%. Most of the time the 70% will win definitely. Just tests how lucky you are in those attempts, just like casino.

If you are unconvinced, try fighting against PA in Dota with maxed out Evasion lol you will feel the odds lol. Even at 50/50 its a double edged knife. just to give an idea no promotions whatsoever
Starkomat
6 years ago
Farming Mission Vao for 3 months now in cantina.
Ratio: today 0 of 8. Yesterday 0 of 9. Days before maybe 2 of 9. Very short time of 3-4 days with better than 1 of 3. First month with good will 1of 5 or 6. count every day if above or under 1of3. For cantina and especially mission i can not find the “magical“ the math is right.
But in 100 years there sure will come a winning strike with 1of1 for a whole year and ....in sum it will be still under the 33% ratio.
Kisakee
6 years ago
Everybody says around 30% is the average but nobody said that every player will be in this range.

If in one week one player get one shard for every attempt and two other players get nothing the whole week it's still 33,3% in average, game just isn't fair to everyone.
GifafiTho
6 years ago
The nice part about rng is that now I'm due 150 dbast shards on my next 50 attempts!
Starkomat
6 years ago
"Liath;c-1770812" wrote:
"Starkomat;c-1770790" wrote:
Farming Mission Vao for 3 months now in cantina.
Ratio: today 0 of 8. Yesterday 0 of 9. Days before maybe 2 of 9. Very short time of 3-4 days with better than 1 of 3. First month with good will 1of 5 or 6. count every day if above or under 1of3. For cantina and especially mission i can not find the “magical“ the math is right.
But in 100 years there sure will come a winning strike with 1of1 for a whole year and ....in sum it will be still under the 33% ratio.

The fact that you are using the word maybe and only counting “above” or “below” is sufficient evidence that you are not properly counting drops in any meaningful way.

I am using the word “maybe“ because of my very good will, actually it is worse. Above/below is a good summation for daily performance check. Your words are sufficient evidence for your very disrespect. the assertion iam not “count properly“ is insulting. If you have nothing to say in any meaningful way, then please say nothing at all.

Kisakee is right about the game is not fair to everyone, but it should be at least over a period of time.

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