My perspective on probability
I don't want to talk about scientific terms or formulas or algorithms or any of that technicality.
I just want to express, based on my own experience and observation, what different percentages can yield. Keep in mind percentages are not a exact science. Let me explain
- You have 100 energy and you are farming a piece of gear which costs 10 energy each. You use all of it only get 1, your automatic assumption is that the yield percentage is 10%, but this is far from the truth.
Most everyone here would agree that to provide reliable stats on percentages one should test in the thousands, but of course nobody has time (or resources) to do/test this (perhaps an energy hoarder can provide some insight, Naecabon comes to mind).
On the above scenario we establish that the drop rate of item X is 10%. On the next session, Johnny then spends 100 energy and gets zero of item X, he refreshes and spends another 120 energy and nothing, and concludes that the game is broken and exclaims "OMFGWTFBBQ!!!"
Another day goes by and Johnny uses another 100 energy this time around he gets this pattern:
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
As you can see, if you combine the 3 sessions, the "AVERAGE" comes out closer to 10% than if you just take into account one session.
Well, this has been my experience, sometimes the item I want just doesn't drop, but on a later session I can get even 3-4 of the same item in a row.
Now you can call it, Law of averages, Murphy's Law, bad luck, or any other superstition, but in the end, in the long run the percentage of an item being dropped averages out the more you farm it.
I think people tend to forget when they get 4-5 items in one session and expect that same luck next session.
Also keep in mind that if an item in fact has 10% drop rate, and you get 5 of them in one session of 100 energy, don't expect the item to drop for another 400-500 energy, which seems to me what some people are reporting.
In general, purple gear like hairdryer and handcuffs drop about 15-20% of the time for me, which would probably translate to this:
1. --; 2 item X; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 item X; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
But could also go like this:
1. --; 2 item X; 3 --; 4 item X; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 --; 9 --; 10 item X
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 item X; 9 item X; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
Anybody else experience this?
I just want to express, based on my own experience and observation, what different percentages can yield. Keep in mind percentages are not a exact science. Let me explain
- You have 100 energy and you are farming a piece of gear which costs 10 energy each. You use all of it only get 1, your automatic assumption is that the yield percentage is 10%, but this is far from the truth.
Most everyone here would agree that to provide reliable stats on percentages one should test in the thousands, but of course nobody has time (or resources) to do/test this (perhaps an energy hoarder can provide some insight, Naecabon comes to mind).
On the above scenario we establish that the drop rate of item X is 10%. On the next session, Johnny then spends 100 energy and gets zero of item X, he refreshes and spends another 120 energy and nothing, and concludes that the game is broken and exclaims "OMFGWTFBBQ!!!"
Another day goes by and Johnny uses another 100 energy this time around he gets this pattern:
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
As you can see, if you combine the 3 sessions, the "AVERAGE" comes out closer to 10% than if you just take into account one session.
Well, this has been my experience, sometimes the item I want just doesn't drop, but on a later session I can get even 3-4 of the same item in a row.
Now you can call it, Law of averages, Murphy's Law, bad luck, or any other superstition, but in the end, in the long run the percentage of an item being dropped averages out the more you farm it.
I think people tend to forget when they get 4-5 items in one session and expect that same luck next session.
Also keep in mind that if an item in fact has 10% drop rate, and you get 5 of them in one session of 100 energy, don't expect the item to drop for another 400-500 energy, which seems to me what some people are reporting.
In general, purple gear like hairdryer and handcuffs drop about 15-20% of the time for me, which would probably translate to this:
1. --; 2 item X; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 item X; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
But could also go like this:
1. --; 2 item X; 3 --; 4 item X; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 --; 9 --; 10 item X
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 item X; 9 item X; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
Anybody else experience this?
