10 years ago
My perspective on probability
I don't want to talk about scientific terms or formulas or algorithms or any of that technicality. I just want to express, based on my own experience and observation, what different percentages can...
"CPMP;179818" wrote:"KamikazeRhombus;179526" wrote:"sid;179494" wrote:
Past results do not influence future results. One should base their expectations accordingly.
Given a 1/3 shard drop rate:
If I get 0/9, then I am sad and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.
If I get 5/9, then I am happy and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.
Assuming the computer coding is written such that each battle is an independent event.
Even tossing a coin for 10 times and ending up tails, it won't increase the chance to be heads the 11th time.
"Starjumper;180200" wrote:"KamikazeRhombus;179526" wrote:"sid;179494" wrote:
Past results do not influence future results. One should base their expectations accordingly.
Given a 1/3 shard drop rate:
If I get 0/9, then I am sad and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.
If I get 5/9, then I am happy and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.
Assuming the computer coding is written such that each battle is an independent event.
It's not an assumption. The word random by definition means that each battle will be independent.