RNG? I think not

"J0K3R;948300" wrote:

"Tharivol;947966" wrote:

"Nikoms565;947909" wrote:
feel free to also Google "Confirmation Bias".

"Nikoms565;947909" wrote:
In response to C - no thread has ever been deleted for simply providing factual information (aside from identities of cheaters).

"Nikoms565;947909" wrote:
As several people have already posted, the work, time, effort and complexity of developing some sort of dynamic RNG that would respond to your entire inventory and what the game thought you were attempting to farm, level, etc. is far too immersive for a development team that can't fix Teebo's stealth (no offense to them).

"Nikoms565;947909" wrote:
Secondly, they wouldn't have to go to all that trouble. Slot machines are random - and well monitored for their accuracy in RNG - and casinos are making money hand over fist. There's a reason Las Vegas builds multi-billion dollar casinos - and it aint because they're losing money - or not making it fast enough. There's no reason to manipulate the odds - they don't have to and it's far too much work.

"Nikoms565;947909" wrote:
Finally, be careful - I've heard that tin foil hats can get very sweaty.

"SumiXam;947735" wrote:
https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSMOlv24JZKP3YgDPoOywUSgTx6pOvmcd5o1t_xIXcPdOalwKY9

Irony: noun
a situation in which something which was intended to have a particular result has the opposite or a very different result.

Not sure what result u were going for, but u just proved all that was said wasnt irony, while trying to give examples of irony. How ironic

You really need the explanation of the whole thing spoon-fed to you, don't you?
Or just trying to be funny I guess.

Anyway back to topic;

"HorishBathens;948285" wrote:

"Nikoms565;947694" wrote:
OP - Google "Occam's Razor"

Occam's razor doesn't apply here

It actually does, apply here. That's why it would be best for everyone to just share their experiences rather than arguing about the subject, so we would get numbers rather than just assumptions.

I for one (as I've said before) in many cases noticed that I get lower drops on Gear parts whenever they get close to 50 (Same with Character Shards - To speak of a specific mod is a little far fetched but so far we know that Arrow and Triangle mods drop chances are lower than others already).
And even though I've never spelled this out before, the same exact theory came from countless people both in my Guild and on Forums alike.
Again this can be just a simple "Selective Perception", or it can actually be something along the codes of the game.
And there is no way to find out about it. (Unless everyone on this topic takes note of their drops on next 50.000 energy consumption and share them on a pool here so the numbers would talk, instead of assumptions, which is not very likely to happen lol)

"Exletion;948301" wrote:

"HorishBathens;948285" wrote:

"Nikoms565;947694" wrote:
OP - Google "Occam's Razor"

Occam's razor doesn't apply here

It can apply,

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.

This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)

2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.

Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.

"Nikoms565;948522" wrote:

"Exletion;948301" wrote:

"HorishBathens;948285" wrote:

"Nikoms565;947694" wrote:
OP - Google "Occam's Razor"

Occam's razor doesn't apply here

It can apply,

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.

This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)

2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.

Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.

1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)

Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)

As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)

"Tharivol;948566" wrote:

"Nikoms565;948522" wrote:

"Exletion;948301" wrote:

"HorishBathens;948285" wrote:

"Nikoms565;947694" wrote:
OP - Google "Occam's Razor"

Occam's razor doesn't apply here

It can apply,

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.

This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)

2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.

Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.

1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)

Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)

Yeah, this. lol! This guy broke down my original rant more coherent and without my rage keyboard.

to add another argument; if in fact they coded the game in a way that reduced droprates when you're close to unlock/star up or what not, don't you think this would have been a hot topic since launch?
As we have established it's completely natural to start noticing worse drops just when you need them most, so players are already dealing with that happening, combine that with actually reduced droprates = forum's a blaze!

"leef;948577" wrote:
to add another argument; if in fact they coded the game in a way that reduced droprates when you're close to unlock/star up or what not, don't you think this would have been a hot topic since launch?
As we have established it's completely natural to start noticing worse drops just when you need them most, so players are already dealing with that happening, combine that with actually reduced droprates = forum's a blaze!

You are much less likely to check how many drops you get, let's say when you have 1 Stun Cuffs and need 50 of them. And on top of it there is always the RNG element too, the fact that you can simply spend 5000 energy and not get a single shard. When these interfere, it would be next to impossible to make a judgement. Especially if you don't even know what you are looking for. Now that you have this idea on your mind though, you will involuntarily check it on your journey in the game. (Inceptioned! Got the idea in all of your minds, even to the ones that doesn't accept it will involuntarily check it now lol :D )

The only way to come up with an answer to this would be to make a controlled experiment, which would require spending hundreds of thousands of Energy (if not millions), checking how much drops you got at 0/50 Stun Cuffs and 49/50 Stun Cuffs.

But if 50-100 people close to finishing an item checks out for it and shares their data, it would be such an easier job.

So yeah still impossible, since people like to argue more than to help out to collect data :)

"Tharivol;948566" wrote:

"Nikoms565;948522" wrote:

"Exletion;948301" wrote:

"HorishBathens;948285" wrote:

"Nikoms565;947694" wrote:
OP - Google "Occam's Razor"

Occam's razor doesn't apply here

It can apply,

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.

This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)

2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.

Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.

1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)

Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)

As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)

You can, of course, discuss it. And virtually all data that has ever been tracked suggests that drop rates are constant and consistent. The only time it becomes an "issue" is when a few people with no actual data agree with each other's anecdotal "evidence" and post it on the forums.

But sure, if people would rather trust and discuss their feelings regardless of actual data, have at it.

"Nikoms565;948628" wrote:

"Tharivol;948566" wrote:

"Nikoms565;948522" wrote:

"Exletion;948301" wrote:

"HorishBathens;948285" wrote:

"Nikoms565;947694" wrote:
OP - Google "Occam's Razor"

Occam's razor doesn't apply here

It can apply,

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.

This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)

2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.

Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.

1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)

Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)

As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)

And virtually all data that has ever been tracked suggests that drop rates are constant and consistent.

And that's your assumption. You have no solid data or any info whatsoever about it. Since no one has ever tested this exact theory. Yes they tested drop chances generally and on average came up with a close number, but this is entirely different.

@Tharivol
during the course of my "swgoh carreer" i've farmed quite alot of characters and gear, yet i've only noticed myself noticing worse drops just before an unlock/star up etc. not nearly as often. So it's easy for me to assume it's my mind playing tricks on me, wich is also far more likely than the game being coded to drop less when needed most.

"leef;948577" wrote:
to add another argument; if in fact they coded the game in a way that reduced droprates when you're close to unlock/star up or what not, don't you think this would have been a hot topic since launch?
As we have established it's completely natural to start noticing worse drops just when you need them most, so players are already dealing with that happening, combine that with actually reduced droprates = forum's a blaze!

Personally I have never noticed a drop in rates when I'm close; however, it is not out of the realm of possibility for normal gear drops to be put in it's own probability bracket or scale the probability curve depending on a number out of another number. That being said, there is nothing to correlate reduced mod drops in this way since there is no possible way to ascertain what combination and character, the player may be trying to advance.