Shard drop rate is toooooo low :(

"Winterwolves;c-2393539" wrote:

33% drop rate means 67% no drop.

The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected.

The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is
.33x.33 for 10.9%

So 5 in a row of no drops is more likely to happen than a mere 2 in a row of drops.

Why don't you often see 5 drops from 5 attempts? .33x.33x.33x.33x.33 is 0.4% chance of seeing this. Not often. But I have seen it. I've been playing for 5+ years, so I should have.

Someone will likely correct me here, I'm not great on this stuff. Could be wrong.

No...not once a week.
I am sure it is more than once a week, according to (what little) experience i have.

So...1 out of 5 is 33% (i dont ask much. Just 1 battle out of 5 gives me the shards. So lets put aside, for now, the "2 out of 5 = 10.9%") and 0 out of 5 is 13.5%...
Why do i get the feeling that i often get 0 out of 5?

Again...this math doesnt explain the 1 out of 12 above...

Let me document all my attempts next week and post those here.