Shard drop rates very different

Since I got Shoretrooper to 5* I've seen a definite decline in shard drops. I was averaging 3 a day (I'd guess) but now I'm lucky to get 1.

This is easy to get a misleading impression from these. The expected drop is between 1 and 2 shards, so getting one is not a "bad drop", and getting zero is almost as likely as getting three. But four and five shard drops are even less likely. And the reason the earlier star levels felt faster is because they required a lot fewer shards.

If you actually want to test, you need to record your drops every day across several months, and then go back and compare. No one can trust their intuition here, you need the actual data, because your brain will remember the things that made you unhappy (zero or one shard drops) more than the things that felt like what it "should be" (two and three shard drops). Even though 2-3 shards from a hard node in a day is actually better-than-expected.

Anyway, in a truly random system, some toons will end up getting starred up much sooner than others in any case. So the more data you have the more certain you can be.

I'm currently farming baze, shore, falcon and original kylos ship.

Baze i get horrible rates, the rest fluctuate without any consistency. Probably nothin that can be read much into.

Reaper is horrible drop rate compared to kru. People in my guild are finished kru and his ship and I’m still working on reaper that I started months before.
So ya I agree

I'd think that the harder battles have a lower drop rate logically which I wouldn't mind.

Baze dropped fine, Shore was horrid, Krennic so so.

Moved to correct sub forum.

Confirmation bias? Even you don't seem to sure about what you are remembering. The human brain is not really made to understand statistics, that's why data has to be recorded to make accurate judgements.

Law of large numbers (drop rates are consistent across a large sample) and confirmation bias (you are more likely to perceive / remember things that confirm what you think than those which refute it) are at work.

And you need really large numbers to make a statement. Take this example - across two accounts with three refreshes of 3F (KRU) per day.

Account One: KRU - 7* Unlock - Tie Silencer - 7* Unlock
Account Two: KRU 88/100 - Tie Silencer 32/100

Talks about some RNG differential. The shard counts on account one were always within five or so of eachother and the silencer beat the toon by 2 shards - account two the gap has steadily widened since I started the farm. *Shrug*

So, question on the shard drops. I was in Cantina doing 2-B farming (or trying to) Ezra. I ran 19 sim tickets which is 152 stamina, and in those 19 i only got 3 shards! For unmasked Kylo Ten and ship i get 6+ easily for less battles. Is something wrong??