Y-Wing droprate

I am working under the assumption that the drop rate is 2%/energy since my current data set is giving me 2.10% +/- 0.61% per energy (95% confidence interval) and a direct halving would make sense based on the energy changes. To understand why this is actually significantly worse, we need to dive a little deeper. It takes 80 shards to unlock or an expected value of 4000 energy and 7250 energy to 5 star under the assumption of 2%/energy.

You get 285 energy for free each day under the current regeneration rate. I assume you managed to bring in 600 energy from the day before (240+3x120), though this will ultimately just boil down to 1 less refresh required per day. As such, to even expect to unlock the ship, you need to get 1975 energy from refreshes across the event, or 3.29 refreshes/day. From a practical standpoint, I will always round up since you can forgo the refreshes later if you're on track or ahead, but making them up later is extremely expensive. That puts it at 250 crystals/day to even unlock the ship. If you want to 5 star the ship, that number goes up to 8.708 refreshes/day expectation (round to 9) for about 1050 crystals/day.

Compare that to the previous situation. You needed 2000 energy to unlock and 3625 energy to 5 star. Assuming 165 free energy per day and the same 600 energy carryover from the day before, you would only need 0.958 (so 1) refresh per day at 100 crystals/day to unlock the ship or 3.67 (so 4) or 500 crystals/day to 5 star it.