Does anyone have a current list of what exercise does what?

I'm pretty sure bowling, basketball, dancing, fire dancing, horseshoes, skating, and the water slide does not affect weight gain/loss or muscle (at least not as strongly as the others).
I'd like to believe push-ups/sit-ups do some sort of an effect on weight loss, but I haven't sat down and had a sim do straight push-ups for a whole day to see lmao

Boxing, swimming, and yoga are more or less well-rounded since it maintains a specific physique (at least for mine).
TV workouts, depending on which ones specifically, would either build some muscle (power sculpting) or weight loss (plumboomba dancing) I think--My fitness nuts usually don't do them as often since they usually have an at-home gym they use daily.
The training bot probably falls more under the maintenance side since the specific sim I had in the military career didn't really lose/gain much weight and looked pretty much the same I had her in.

following

I had a teen who practiced basketball in a club three times a week and three hours per training and I can tell you she did gain a lot of muscle! I don't remember if she lost fat though.

An other wanted to be a professional ice skater and became super thin with not a lot of muscle.

Basketball definitely builds muscle.

Good to know about the basketball! I have a couple who live outside the courts in the spice district so I like to send them down there sometimes!
I used to make one of my Sims who joined the athletic career use the treadmill (which as others have said, slims Sims down), but she also used the punching bag and didn't become too muscly, but became fairly toned.
I've had a sim slim down a lot by jogging around the block too.

Push ups build muscle. Sit ups affect weight. Swimming has always had a diminishing effect on weight loss in previous sims game. Im sure Sims 4 is the same way. Dancing has no effect on weight. (go fig) Bowling and losing weight is something unheard of. From what I've seen in the pro league bowling, a majority of the bowlers have strong arms but rather large guts.

I think Yoga does something. I was testing University with a Sim and he took Yoga as an elective and I had him practice Yoga in conjunction with his homework and after a few sessions, I got a blue message pop-up that said something that his fitness or something was better.