@maximas1986Well I don't know for certain how the apex packs work. But I would assume it's RNG based as it makes the most sense and Apex does use RNG for numerous things such as loot in the game.
So let's look at the individual apex packs, normal ones.. They likely use some type of RNG system, they simple, they are time tested and they reliable. Now based on the information available we know each pack guarantees at least 1 rare or better item. How would they achieve this with an RNG? It only takes one item in the Apex pack to achieve the guarantee for the rare or better item. So you can set 1 RNG to be populated with nothing but rare or better items. 7.4% of those items are legendary, 24.8% of the times are epic and the remaining items are all rare. This will allow the pack to always produce a rare or better item. It's full proof and will always meet the guarantees stated. Now the other 2 items in the pack use a different RNG that is populated with ALL in game items normal items-legendary. Since the normal items increase the number of possibilities it would decrease the odds of getting a rare, epic or legendary item. This RNG would likely be the one that contains the .2% chance at a heirloom. I don't know for certain it's a .2% chance, I make that assumption based on the fact that the odds of getting a heirloom are some place below 1%. But .2% makes sense to me because of the 500 pack guarantee. 1/500=.002 or .2% There are other ways to achieve this, but that is a simple explanation of how it could work and it's likely something along those lines. They could also use one RNG that just locks out the items which are not rare or better for 1 of the apex pack outcomes.
When I say it's a .2% of a heirloom that simply means that out of all the possibilities or outcomes the RNG can produce, .2% of those are a heirloom. The remaining 99.8% possibilities/outcomes being something else. The thing about RNG is that they average over thousands or even millions.
Yes people will get extremely lucky with Apex Packs and Heirlooms. That is the nature of the beast and RNG's. If a person happens to stop the RNG the precise moment a heirloom is the prize, then they will get a heirloom. It makes no difference if you've received 1 2 or 3 heirlooms, the odds are always the same. The only thing that matters is when you stop the RNG. But weighting the outcomes like you suggest is just not remotely feasible. They would have to write different code for different people or have different RNG for different people.. How would they distribute that? How would they control that? Hacking it or cheating the system some how is not really possible, I guess nothing is impossible. But you're talking about getting into the EA servers, that's far different than the in game cheats people use to gain an advantage. If someone can hack the EA servers, I can almost guarantee they have 0 interest in heirlooms.
There is one other way to do this and that is with a pre-populated prize pool, sort of like lotto scratch offs. But that's another beast entirely and I find that to be unlikely. RNG can handle everything and would not require updating the prize pool.