Re: What are the chances of you getting an heirloom in Apex Legends?
@MandatoryIDtag There is no accumulation. This is how probability works over multiple independent events.
I completely agree that as a single event each one has a 0.5% of working out for you. My calculations are based on that.
AS I said with the coin flipping. Do you have a better chance at hitting a Heads over 1 or 2 flips? It should be self explanatory and, yes, each "flip" has the same chance. The outcome of the first flip has zero bearing on the second nor does it change it's likely outcome. If you are unlucky with the first flip then you have a 50/50 chance with your second flip... NOTE that at that point it's a single independent event (not 2). If you calculate it using 2 independent event (having two flips) you can see the difference. This in no way "stacks" or "accumulates" results. It is looking at the probabilities of the set of results over 2 events. Same what I did with the original 0.5% calculation. It's sound.
The original claim was it was about a 0.5% per pack of getting an heirloom. What I have done is shown you how that works down over many packs. It's that simple. This is how probability works.
To put it another way, out of the people who have opened 250 packs with these odds about 71.5% of them would have received at least one heirloom.
- DR
