What are the chances of you getting an heirloom in Apex Legends?

@DarthValtrex No, you're making zero sense.

Show me your work - the actual math - to justify your answer.  I've done so twice already and all you are doing is going on about "RNG" and "perfect" flips - neither of which makes any sense.

Its' true computer based RNG is not truly "Random" (well, you can get hardware that does this but I doubt that's the case here) but, for our purposes, the outcome of that is insignificant; the trends should follow pretty closely what I'm claiming.  

Show me.  

@MandatoryIDtag There is no accumulation.   This is how probability works over multiple independent events.

I completely agree that as a single event each one has a 0.5% of working out for you.  My calculations are based on that.

AS I said with the coin flipping.  Do you have a better chance at hitting a Heads over 1 or 2 flips?  It should be self explanatory and, yes, each "flip" has the same chance.  The outcome of the first flip has zero bearing on the second nor does it change it's likely outcome.  If you are unlucky with the first flip then you have a 50/50 chance with your second flip... NOTE that at that point it's a single independent event (not 2).  If you calculate it using 2 independent event (having two flips) you can see the difference.  This in no way "stacks" or "accumulates" results.  It is looking at the probabilities of the set of results over 2 events.  Same what I did with the original 0.5% calculation.  It's sound.

The original claim was it was about a 0.5% per pack of getting an heirloom.  What I have done is shown you how that works down over many packs.  It's that simple.  This is how probability works.  

To put it another way, out of the people who have opened 250 packs with these odds about 71.5% of them would have received at least one heirloom.

- DR

@RockDokRock

"Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75%"

How does that work?

How does chance change? If the probability of the outcome is same?

If I flip 10 times and get head 10 times do I get close to 100% chance of getting tails?

How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?

Does the coin suddenly start creating forcefield gravity towards tails side?

@damsonwhufndthis Do I stutter?  It's not my fault you haven't studied probability.

2 flips.  4 outcomes.  Each chance equally likely (after 2 flips).

HH - 25%

HT - 25%

TH - 25%

TT - 25%

3 of the 4 outcomes (with equal outcomes) have at least one heads.  If we assume the coin is fair then they will each have a equal or probable outcome.  25%.  3 of them have heads.  Therefore 75% OVER TWO FLIPS.  It's really really really simple.

So if you flip a coin twice, in 75% of the cases, you should see at least one heads.  I am not sure how this is a challenging concept.

You said:  "How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?"

You don't.  That's ridiculous.  It just shows you literally don't know what you are talking about.

My original post on this topic is just being proven over and over again with this discussion.

Anyway, I'm done.  Believe what you want.  I've shown my work.  Nobody else has shown anything other than arm waving arguments.  

- DR

@RockDokRockwhere does the 75% chance come from again?

In a chance of 50/50, where does 75% chance come from?

@damsonwhufndthis Fully explained above.  Over 2 flips.  I've explained it several times now.  If you can't grasp it I can't help you, sorry.

You are focusing on individual events.  Not a collection of independent events.

- DR

@RockDokRockwhere did you learn this "math"?

@damsonwhufndthis  Thanks for asking.

Actually I've taught this subject before as part of a class.  I hold a PhD in a mathematical discipline and am a University Lecturer.

You?

@RockDokRockoh my bad, I searched little bit online

Can I ask you why you use on a 0,4% chance scenerio, a coinflip formula?