About these bonus drops...

This is what is known as insufficient data.

I spent more or less 750 energy to get only 4 DN and 2 holdo shards... Since when they drops its a 2xshard drop... Its just 3 drops in the whole day xD

Maybe im the unluckyest guy in the world :S but 3 drops in 750 energy seems a bit low for a "bonus" event xD

"Mahbrethir;c-1541104" wrote:
AHAHAH no.

You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.

These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.

A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.

As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.

Your last paragraph shows you may not understand how statistics works. To calculate P(x) you would need to know if all rewards are dependent or independent. It's a different formula depending ... just saying.

I just spent 460 energy. 23 sims i.e. Got 20(10×2) shards. The chances of that happening are *insert number*. Therefore, the drop rate % is *insert number*.
No, that's not how it works. Insufficient data size, mate.

I got 8 on a SIM of 8 so the drop rate is 100% it was all shard shop currency though

I'll say it nice and slow to ward off future posts about sample size.....

I'm not calculating a drop rate.

I'm using the stated drop rate by the devs, and calculating the chance of a given result. That's an easy math problem, what's the chance of a flipping a coin and getting X amount of heads, what's the chance of drawing two cards from a deck and they're both aces, etc. You don't need sample sizes because I'm not proposing a new rate.

A coin flip is fifty fifty.... What's the chance of getting a heads after one flip? 50%... that's a fact.

Per the devs, what's the chance of getting a shard from a hardnode? 30%, that's a fact. What's the chance of getting none from 24 attempts? 0.02% and that's a fact.

I'm not saying what the drop rate is..... so stop talking about sample size...

for a game with say (assuming) 100,000 active players, about 20 should get that. Your math checks out, but its very possible you ve just been very, very unlucky

I had one run where I received bonus shards for all 3, so it appears I can confirm it’s not an either/or situation.

Also, where did they state the 30% drop rate? I know that’s what they’ve stated for normal hard node drops, but I never saw them state that for bonus shards.

If I had to guess I would bet the bonus shard drop was something more like 10% per character, for a total of 30% bonus drop chance.

Under that assumption, your first example of zero drops on 8 runs (.7^8) 0.058 or 5.8% or 1 in ~17 attempts. That certainly seems reasonable to me, and anecdotally seems to match what I experienced.

This thread is what happens when people who don't understand probability think that they understand probability.

You complain about the drop rate and then say you are not discussing drop rate. Ok then.

The simple truth is that you do not know how the bonus drops were implemented, none of us do, so all we can do is draw upon empirical evidence. For you, it would seem bonus drops are impossible. Bummer, dude. Well, that's probability for you.

Do 3 sims at a time. :P