About these bonus drops...

That is too small a sample to make judgements on.. on 32 runs I got 6 shards. 18ish percent. Barely even noticeable

AHAHAH no.

You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.

These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.

A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.

As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.

Yeah, I'm not trying to complain about free stuff, but when they bend over backwards to say, "All drops rates on shards are consistent!" and then this happens, it elicits a lot of doubt.

"Mahbrethir;c-1541104" wrote:
AHAHAH no.

You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.

These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.

A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.

As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.

That last paragraph marginalizes your first paragraph. You can't determine p(x) if you don't know if rewards are dependent or independent. Just saying.

"Jeric;c-1541157" wrote:

"Mahbrethir;c-1541104" wrote:
AHAHAH no.

You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.

These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.

A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.

As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.

Your last paragraph shows you may not understand how statistics works. To calculate P(x) you would need to know if all rewards are dependent or independent. It's a different formula depending ... just saying.

I think you're misinterpreting what I'm trying to say. I'm not trying to determine the drop rate. I'm trying to show the drop rate that devs have stated is not correct, they have adamantly stated that drop rates are independent of anything, and there are no changes in drop rates based on the way you run the node (2 or 3 attempts or 8 all at once, or changes in drop rates leading up to events)

My assumptions are likely wrong. I assume they're wrong, that's the whole point. I'm assuming that the bonus drops each have a 30% independent chance of dropping, I'm assuming what the devs said is the truth.

If that's the case, it's matter of mathematical fact to say: the chances of getting zero bonus shards on 8 runs is 0.02% one fiftieth of one percent. So.... therefore it's highly likely that my assumptions were incorrect, and in the drop rates for these bonus shards are not as the devs stated.

In regard to, "my last paragraph." I was correcting the earlier statement that implied he got '18ish' (6/32) percent of the total possible shards, to which I replied, that it was actually 6% (6/96) of the possible bonus. I wasn't making a probability calculation based on that, I was simply correcting the ratio of successes/attempts he stated before.

"Kiritoismyname;c-1541158" wrote:
I just spent 460 energy. 23 sims i.e. Got 20(10×2) shards. The chances of that happening are *insert number*. Therefore, the drop rate % is *insert number*.
No, that's not how it works. Insufficient data size, mate.

That... is exactly how it works....

If you know the drop rate, that is the only way it works....

Maybe you should reread the topic...

I agree, the drop rate is way below 30%. I used 3 refresh everyday during the event and barely got 20 bonus shards in the end. Same with guild event tokens, 3 refresh every day and got less than 400 tokens in the end... Double drop would have been so much nicer than this.

This is simply not how "odds" work.

I think the drop rates were low for a different reason. Each hard node effectively had odds on dropping 4 possible character shards (sometimes 5 if it had a ship on the node) and the drop rates were the same. So I think the coding went something like this (30% chance for a bonus shard to drop, then equal chance to receiving 1 of the 3 bonus characters). If that's the case, the coding was lame. In lieu of double drops, the least they could have done was provide a 30% chance for each bonus shard to drop. Not once did I get a bonus shard for 2 separate characters.

I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.

"TVF;c-1543717" wrote:
I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.

ugh, I have the worst luck in this game.