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6 years ago
"YaeVizsla;c-1907275" wrote:"ZAP;c-1907195" wrote:
Hundreds is not even close to figuring out averages. Hundreds of thousands is getting warmer, but will still create some outliers
Not... exactly. Or rather... no. Not how that works.
Poking around at binomial calculators online, since it's been years since I've taken statistics, my 92 drops in 390 tries gives me a 99% confidence that the drop rate for finishers is somewhere in approximately the 15-30% range. As I make more attempts, that range will narrow.
Hmmm, you said the exact same thing I said with a bunch of “stuff” in between.
What I said was absolutely true and you even confirmed it in the above bolded sentence.
It’s no different than percentages in poker hands. Those percentages are derived from millions of trials, not a handful. The more trials, the more you narrow the range, we’re saying the same thing, aren’t we?
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