Drop Rate Reality

"Zen;121769" wrote:

"Triqui;121710" wrote:

"Zen;121568" wrote:

"Triqui;121477" wrote:

"Zen;121466" wrote:

Do all the calculations you want, it's evident that the majority of people(including myself) are noticing a decrease. I don't need to convince anyone of that.

It is not evident. There are 5 million players in the game. The majority needs to be above 2.5 milliond, and we dont have 2.5 million forum users.

You are using your personal experience and using it to conclude that the majority, who hasnt voiced their opinion, agree with you.

It is called fallacy of hasty generalization

So nothing has changed and so many people have just become deluded about the drop rates this week? Fair enough.

Exactly.
We are 5 million players. As drops are random, 1% of them are going to be incredibly lucky, and 1% of them are going to be incredibly unlucky. That is a mathemathical fact. Unavoidable. Drops will draw a Bell Distribution, and some will be highly above or highly below average.

That's FIFTY THOUSAND PEOPLE who is incredibly unlucky. Just need 1 in THOUSAND to come to the forums to claim the drop este has been nerfed, and you will have 50 threads about it.

If you put 5/million guys to toss coins, 50 of them will come here to claim that coin toss percentwge has been nerfed, and it is no longer a 50%.

We'll have to agree to disagree then

I don't know how you can disagree with a mathemathical fact such as Bell Distibution, but ok then

"AbysmalDarkside;121782" wrote:

"Triqui;121771" wrote:

"AbysmalDarkside;121731" wrote:
Like I said before I too have hit cold streaks, but it was never for several days back to back to back to back, the past 4 days I pulled about 10 shards total in about 200 attempts when considering I always use cantina refills 1-2 times a day. Don't tell me im just unlucky right now, the day the jedi only event drops alongside a jedi bundle I suddenly hit an ultimate cold streak for the ENTIRE event ? Stop talking nonsense yes it is RNG, but yes the drop rates are lower maybe temoporarily just until the event finishes hopefully so I can actually farm characters. The drop rates being low makes sense though the devs want us to buy the bundle & people are actually special ed enough to do it.

Dude, unless you think CG went ahead and soecifically nerfed YOUR drop rate, while they let MINE as it was, your theory has a clear flaw: your experience does not work for me, or for many others that have been farming Cantina just as you. I got 14 drops I'm 36 attempts today for Mace Windu. How do you make that compatible with your conspiracy theory?

Its RNG the numbers will eventually spike back, my point is ive hit Cold Streaks before, but never for several days back to back to back ironically the week of the jedi only event, You're not gonna change my opinion, we'll have to agree to disagree.

It is also the week of the Jedi event for me. My Mace Windu was 41/65 yesterday. Got 55/65 this morning with three full refills (regular from rest +2 crystal paid). He is 58/65 right now, after a few more tries with the regular energy regeneration this evening. I don't see the developers programming "if username=triqui then Drop.Rate=35% else if user name =AbysmalDarkside drop.Rate=10%".
You just tossed a few coins, and got a bad streak of heads, while I got closer to the 50% average. The outcoe of your rolls do not mean the coin is not balanced and the chance is not 50%.

"AbysmalDarkside;121782" wrote:

"Triqui;121771" wrote:

"AbysmalDarkside;121731" wrote:
Like I said before I too have hit cold streaks, but it was never for several days back to back to back to back, the past 4 days I pulled about 10 shards total in about 200 attempts when considering I always use cantina refills 1-2 times a day. Don't tell me im just unlucky right now, the day the jedi only event drops alongside a jedi bundle I suddenly hit an ultimate cold streak for the ENTIRE event ? Stop talking nonsense yes it is RNG, but yes the drop rates are lower maybe temoporarily just until the event finishes hopefully so I can actually farm characters. The drop rates being low makes sense though the devs want us to buy the bundle & people are actually special ed enough to do it.

Dude, unless you think CG went ahead and soecifically nerfed YOUR drop rate, while they let MINE as it was, your theory has a clear flaw: your experience does not work for me, or for many others that have been farming Cantina just as you. I got 14 drops I'm 36 attempts today for Mace Windu. How do you make that compatible with your conspiracy theory?

Its RNG the numbers will eventually spike back, my point is ive hit Cold Streaks before, but never for several days back to back to back ironically the week of the jedi only event, You're not gonna change my opinion, we'll have to agree to disagree.

I have hit several back to back terrible days for Kylo especially. I also had Kylo drop over 50% for the last 2 days to 7* him.

"J7000;121826" wrote:

"Zen;121769" wrote:

"Triqui;121710" wrote:

"Zen;121568" wrote:

"Triqui;121477" wrote:

"Zen;121466" wrote:

Do all the calculations you want, it's evident that the majority of people(including myself) are noticing a decrease. I don't need to convince anyone of that.

It is not evident. There are 5 million players in the game. The majority needs to be above 2.5 milliond, and we dont have 2.5 million forum users.

You are using your personal experience and using it to conclude that the majority, who hasnt voiced their opinion, agree with you.

It is called fallacy of hasty generalization

So nothing has changed and so many people have just become deluded about the drop rates this week? Fair enough.

Exactly.
We are 5 million players. As drops are random, 1% of them are going to be incredibly lucky, and 1% of them are going to be incredibly unlucky. That is a mathemathical fact. Unavoidable. Drops will draw a Bell Distribution, and some will be highly above or highly below average.

That's FIFTY THOUSAND PEOPLE who is incredibly unlucky. Just need 1 in THOUSAND to come to the forums to claim the drop este has been nerfed, and you will have 50 threads about it.

If you put 5/million guys to toss coins, 50 of them will come here to claim that coin toss percentwge has been nerfed, and it is no longer a 50%.

We'll have to agree to disagree then

His understanding of math is strange. Apparently if one person draws 0 shards or equipment in 1000 trys and another draws 1000 in 1000 the devs could say the drop rate is 50%

No. What I'm saying (not really, but using your overexagerated example) is that if you put 5 milliong guys to draw shards, one of them is going to be very close to 0/1000, and another one is going to be very close to 1000/1000 (again, not true with 1000 tries, but to use your example). With the other 4.999.998 guys not dropping that.

More importantly: if you put 5 million guys to roll 1000 drops, even if 90% of them get from 300 to 400 drops, you are going to have 1% that will roll either very high, or very low. Because, random. The thing is, the 1% that is going to roll 50 drops in 1000 tries, are going to feel outraged. And are going to come to the forums and post about it. They are just 1% of the people, and, as long as the roll is pure random, it is mandatory that 1% of them are in the 1st percentile and 1% of them are in the 99 percentile.

But 1% of 5 million players, are 50 thousand guys. And as those 50 thousands guys are outraged, they will come, and talk about the drops, generating an echo ("hey, look, there is a LOT of people sharing that they only got 50 drops in 1000 rolls!"). But the truth behind that, is that 90% of people is still rolling 30 to 40%, or whatever the real drop chance is. They just don't feel compelled to talk about their totally run of the mill farming day in the forum.

"DaysOfYore;122327" wrote:

In Vegas, I saw red come up 11 times in a row on roulette. Then 2 black. Then 10 more red.

In Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, the ball fell on black 26 times in a row, bankrupting a lot of people who bet red "because it has to even out". That started what is called Monte Carlo's fallacy or Gambler's Fallacy, which (and I quote) "is the erroneous belief that small samples must be representative of the larger population. According to the fallacy, "streaks" must eventually even out in order to be representative"

A couple of wikipedia links to the very interesting theme of congitivie bias, heuristic thought, the gambler's fallacy, and why our brain is the biggest lier we can find:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Origins
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representativeness_heuristic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasty_generalization

I'm pretty sure you know all of this, btw. But I think I'm going to use your post as an entry point to leave the links there. Maybe someone is interested in reading them and understand why they are frustrated by drop rates

"Randall;118322" wrote:
I have about 6 weeks of data. The drop rate is 35 percent, yours will be too with a decent amount of data points.

I would be interested to see if the drop rate is the same for the use of 6 energy, 8 energy, 10 energy, etc. is the same if it isn't much trouble for you to collect data on this basis?

My subjective assessment is that the drop rate improvement associated with a 10 energy node provides an optimal payback for energy spent but have no factual basis for this. My assessment of value may however get unduly affected by the quality of the gear at the 10 energy nodes.

The drop rates seem incredibly low. Another hidden tactic for more potential profit. High 5 CGames I now rate you 1.0/5.0
Farming Windu I would get a good 12+ shards a day (2 refills), since the "awesome" MAJOR update I have gotten 4 mace Windu shards over the last 4 days. :neutral:

The drop rate for me has been pretty consistent over time, but can vary greatly day to day or even minute to minute. I pulled 2 shards of Dooku in 22 attempts and then pulled 6 straight before coming up empty 1 more time and decided to stop. I got 5/6 Rey today and 1/6 Barris, 1/6 JC and 3/6 Dooku. I usually expect a 1/3 drop rate, but I don't expect that every day or every character. I expect that over an extended time. So while I may not get a 1/3 drop rate of 1 character over a 30 day period, I expect that I have gotten a shard 1/3 of the time I have done a mission. Purple gear drop rates are a whole different story for me though, as well as purple mats. It seems like I am 10% most days.

My Barriss cantina farm drop rate is very high.

My hard node farming is probably near 30% lately. Rey hasn't given me any shards in a few days, but I did have a 4 and 6 shard day in the past week.

There may be code that lowers drop rates based upon certain factors, I really have no idea; but the best thing CG could do would be to write the code and break RNG for cold streaks.

Hot streaks gain them good will. I wouldn't mess with those. Preventing long farming droughts by increasing the chances of drops after every miss (to be reset once an item drops) would go a long way.

I've been at about 10% for the last 2 days in cantina battles for JC. So either something changed or I'm about to go on a hot streak of epic proportions