Forum Discussion
62 Replies
"Chucko_marek;c-1939456" wrote:
"Liath;c-1939452" wrote:
"Chucko_marek;c-1939446" wrote:
The point I am trying to make is that each roll is an independent event, that each has a 25% chance on its own to increase a specific stat. They have no bearing on the other rolls.
Yes, each roll is an independent event. The way you calculate the probability of multiple independent events all occurring is by multiplying their probabilities. That's exactly what I did.
You said that the chances of getting a god mod (4 speed rolls) is the same as the chances of getting 0 speed rolls. That statement is false.
The odds of getting a god mod vs getting a lemon are very different.
Glad we agree. That's why I started by saying that I might be misunderstanding what you were saying.
This is the sentence I was interpreting that way: "So rolling god mods has the same chance as rolling no speed secondaries."- Rolling mods is essiently a binomial trial, where a success is a speed roll and a failure is anything: So for "m" success in 4 rolls. the distribution looks like this:
success times m probability P
0 0.31640625
1 0.421875
2 0.2109375
3 0.046875
4 0.00390625
Getting "good" mods is simply a numbers game with RNG. The more trials you execute the more likely you are to have a decent mod. And, as others have pointed out, this is a game of resources management, so knowing when to abandon a roll and sell is also key and dependent on your mod inevntory. Right now, I need mods that can reasonable roll speed 3x to get into the teens to make an impact, so if the first few rolls miss, I sell them off.
I don't get hoarding credits. I like to have a buffer in all shops, equal to roughly being able to farm a toon if CG ever reverts its decision to not add new toons to some shops and a credit buffer, but 500M is excessive and a wasted opportunity cost. Even if we were to get a level increase, at first you have to gain the XP needed, which is a process that takes weeks, iirc from the slog from 80 to 85, so there is plenty of time to save the required amount. - I have almost 200 mil credits and I still roll my grey mods to lvl 12 to see if they are good. It simply doesn't take up that many credits. I split my mod energy between farming new mods and slicing materials depending on my needs. I'm always limited by mod energy long before credits.
I still have characters i could take to level 85 but they are limited by gear anyway so they are not terribly useful (and some are just bad characters I'll probably never take to level 85)
I do occasionally buy mods from the store but it has to be an amazing mod for that to happen. Right set, right primary, gold mod with 5 speed showing, and other useful secondaries that mesh well with both the set and the primary. Those don't show up all that often so not a huge credit drain.
And I don't use crystals to refresh the mod store and only rarely use them to refresh mod energy (ie I want to roll a mod and am short for some reason.) Some argue that you get more god mods by refreshing but over time you spend a lot of crystals to get a handfull of mods that are decent, a few good mods, and very few god mods. And the opportunity cost is that you potentially miss on the next panic farm or panic gearing and miss a meta toons.
So it is possible to build up a lot of credits and still have decent to good mods. "Chucko_marek;c-1939421" wrote:
"No_Try;c-1939378" wrote:
It takes a great amount of bad luck to not have %25 chance bumps 100 times in a row, quite a lot more than getting god mods in the process xD. But you know...luck takes nothing to believe in it, it provides infinite explanatory power too.
No, they're exactly the same. If you upgrade by 3 levels at a time, you have 25% chance of rolling speed. Each time. So rolling god mods has the same chance as rolling no speed secondaries.
-in a row-- Anyway, I just aimed to make an amusing hyperbole which means getting nothing out of using so many dices is next to none, using up 500m credits will significantly progress a mod roster.
"No_Try;c-1939509" wrote:
Anyway, I just aimed to make an amusing hyperbole which means getting nothing out of using so many dices is next to none, using up 500m credits will significantly progress a mod roster.
The problem is that to go through that many credits, you'll have to either spend significant crystals to refresh energy or the mod store.
Either that or buy mods from the store that aren't all that good and that is a waste of resources."DarkHelmet1138;c-1939511" wrote:
"No_Try;c-1939509" wrote:
Anyway, I just aimed to make an amusing hyperbole which means getting nothing out of using so many dices is next to none, using up 500m credits will significantly progress a mod roster.
The problem is that to go through that many credits, you'll have to either spend significant crystals to refresh energy or the mod store.
Either that or buy mods from the store that aren't all that good and that is a waste of resources.
Yeah it takes time and it's not like you have any rush for it if you make that leap and ignite the process. I had 200m creds and 100m ship creds afterwards 2.0 which I started to use up. No good reason for hoarding them up at that time. I was of the mind -fml, it doesn't work-. Due to the credit income it took sometime to use it up all and my mod roster ended up much better.- This is why the next level cap increase will require a new form of credits (credits 2?) to level characters. I wouldn't put it past CG to do this..
- kato777 years agoSeasoned Ace
"Liath;c-1939452" wrote:
"Chucko_marek;c-1939446" wrote:
The point I am trying to make is that each roll is an independent event, that each has a 25% chance on its own to increase a specific stat. They have no bearing on the other rolls.
Yes, each roll is an independent event. The way you calculate the probability of multiple independent events all occurring is by multiplying their probabilities. That's exactly what I did.
You said that the chances of getting a god mod (4 speed rolls) is the same as the chances of getting 0 speed rolls. That statement is false.
That is why you should always log out and relog into the game after each successful speed upgrade. OR you can upgrade a different mod between a speed upgrade. That resets the probability %. Math is so easily fooled?
i would test it myself but I have never rolled a speed upgrade on any of my mods. "No_Try;c-1939517" wrote:
"DarkHelmet1138;c-1939511" wrote:
"No_Try;c-1939509" wrote:
Anyway, I just aimed to make an amusing hyperbole which means getting nothing out of using so many dices is next to none, using up 500m credits will significantly progress a mod roster.
The problem is that to go through that many credits, you'll have to either spend significant crystals to refresh energy or the mod store.
Either that or buy mods from the store that aren't all that good and that is a waste of resources.
Yeah it takes time and it's not like you have any rush for it if you make that leap and ignite the process. I had 200m creds and 100m ship creds afterwards 2.0 which I started to use up. No good reason for hoarding them up at that time. I was of the mind -fml, it doesn't work-. Due to the credit income it took sometime to use it up all and my mod roster ended up much better.
Like I said above, I already farm mods/slicing materials with all free mod energy and buy good mods if i see them in the store. And that uses enough credits to jave it grow slowly. Occasionally a new character comes out smd I take them to 85 but that only temporarily slows it. There's no more that can be done to use the credits without using crystals or buying mods from the store that aren't as good.
I'm sure the others that have a lot if credits are in the same boat.
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