There is a claim I have seen repeated several times on this forum that the percentage chance of a node dropping its primary reward is 30%.I remain unconvinced.Firstly, if this was the average then I would have roughly as many days above that % as I do below. That's how an average works - it's in the middle. If I see 5 days in a month dropping less than that then surely I should see at least a few days per month dropping more? But I never do.Also, it seems obvious to me that certain nodes have different drop rates from certain other nodes. Is the 30% figure supposed to be the average for each individual node or is it the average across ALL nodes? Because I'd be more willing to accept the latter but some people seem to insist it's the former.Anyway, I'm curious as to who else agrees with me that the 30% claim is wrong.

I'm not moaning about what drops I get.I'm challenging the forum figure of 30%.There's a difference. :-)

It's not an average. It's an individual rate on each attempt. You haven't tracked anything, let alone a statistically relevant sample size.

"Mando2Rebel;c-1724965" wrote:I feel a lot of the time its a confirmation bias, somedays i get more yet others i get bad but like dveryone else i can be quick to forget the good days.Bassically the moral of the story is just get on with the farm and deap with what you got without moaning :-)Possibly but there are absurdly difficult farms that are known, such as blaze, so that leads me to believe there likely are slightly different drops on "premium" characters

"Stenun;d-190500" wrote:There is a claim I have seen repeated several times on this forum that the percentage chance of a node dropping its primary reward is 30%.I remain unconvinced.Firstly, if this was the average then I would have roughly as many days above that % as I do below. That's how an average works - it's in the middle. If I see 5 days in a month dropping less than that then surely I should see at least a few days per month dropping more? But I never do.Also, it seems obvious to me that certain nodes have different drop rates from certain other nodes. Is the 30% figure supposed to be the average for each individual node or is it the average across ALL nodes? Because I'd be more willing to accept the latter but some people seem to insist it's the former.Anyway, I'm curious as to who else agrees with me that the 30% claim is wrong.My experience is that purple gear from LS/DS nodes drops at a rate of ~25%. Character shards drop consistently at roughly 33%. But I never did a comprehensive analysis because knowing any real numbers does not change anything.

"Starlord1809;c-1724974" wrote:Ill answer that question as good as i can to give you a satisfying answer. First of all - 30% is overall - there were some players in the good old days that actually tracked theyre droprrates over a year - and most likely 30% is the average droprate. There are some notes that are below or above 30% - a good example is mission vao - from my perspektive, and from many of my guildmates responses the farm was really hard. T3M4 on the other hand - feels a lot smoother - i get this feedback from my guild members aswell. So basicly mission will be around 25-27% and T3M4 at 33-35%. This is just and example - i dont recorded my numbers. But overall from my experience ...30% drop chance on Hard nodes pretty much hit the nail.....pls try to remember that your mind will always remember the ,,bad'' drop days - and will forget the ,,good'' drop days a lot sooner ;) thats how humans work xD we stick to the bad things - not to the good ahahah :D Mission seems harder cause the node costs more so you get less attemps per refresh, otherwise its the same drop rate.

I'm still not convinced ... | EA Forums

Stenun
6 years ago
I'm not moaning about what drops I get.
I'm challenging the forum figure of 30%.

There's a difference. :-)
tvsfrink
6 years ago
It's not an average. It's an individual rate on each attempt. You haven't tracked anything, let alone a statistically relevant sample size.
allformysaviour
6 years ago
"Mando2Rebel;c-1724965" wrote:
I feel a lot of the time its a confirmation bias, somedays i get more yet others i get bad but like dveryone else i can be quick to forget the good days.

Bassically the moral of the story is just get on with the farm and deap with what you got without moaning :-)

Possibly but there are absurdly difficult farms that are known, such as blaze, so that leads me to believe there likely are slightly different drops on "premium" characters
Member5973
6 years ago
"Stenun;d-190500" wrote:
There is a claim I have seen repeated several times on this forum that the percentage chance of a node dropping its primary reward is 30%.
I remain unconvinced.
Firstly, if this was the average then I would have roughly as many days above that % as I do below. That's how an average works - it's in the middle. If I see 5 days in a month dropping less than that then surely I should see at least a few days per month dropping more? But I never do.

Also, it seems obvious to me that certain nodes have different drop rates from certain other nodes. Is the 30% figure supposed to be the average for each individual node or is it the average across ALL nodes? Because I'd be more willing to accept the latter but some people seem to insist it's the former.

Anyway, I'm curious as to who else agrees with me that the 30% claim is wrong.

My experience is that purple gear from LS/DS nodes drops at a rate of ~25%. Character shards drop consistently at roughly 33%. But I never did a comprehensive analysis because knowing any real numbers does not change anything.
Darknesswonrb
6 years ago
"Starlord1809;c-1724974" wrote:
Ill answer that question as good as i can to give you a satisfying answer. First of all - 30% is overall - there were some players in the good old days that actually tracked theyre droprrates over a year - and most likely 30% is the average droprate. There are some notes that are below or above 30% - a good example is mission vao - from my perspektive, and from many of my guildmates responses the farm was really hard. T3M4 on the other hand - feels a lot smoother - i get this feedback from my guild members aswell. So basicly mission will be around 25-27% and T3M4 at 33-35%. This is just and example - i dont recorded my numbers. But overall from my experience ...30% drop chance on Hard nodes pretty much hit the nail.....pls try to remember that your mind will always remember the ,,bad'' drop days - and will forget the ,,good'' drop days a lot sooner ;) thats how humans work xD we stick to the bad things - not to the good ahahah :D

Mission seems harder cause the node costs more so you get less attemps per refresh, otherwise its the same drop rate.
Da_Bauers
New Spectator
6 years ago
I've tracked a 10-energy Cantina node, a 16-energy Cantina node, and now a 12-energy Cantina node. The first two were 37.90 and 38.17% respectively, the current one is sitting at 33.00% but I'm only about a third complete.

That's a total of 1,688 tracked attempts so far.
ChristophIV
Hero+
6 years ago
"Nauros;c-1725020" wrote:
Just to avoid confusion, you talk about "primary reward", but the 30% probability pertains only to shards. Gear has different probabilities, depending I think on the type of node where it appears first.

Not sure it's the node as much as the gear piece itself. Is it not: gold rarer than purple, which is rarer than blue?
LiathSW
6 years ago
People don’t just say this because it feels right or something. There are people that have actually tracked the numbers across large sample sizes, and that’s where the numbers come from. The people that insist the numbers are wrong have never tracked any significant number of drops.
tvsfrink
6 years ago
"Shenanigans052;c-1724972" wrote:
"Mando2Rebel;c-1724965" wrote:
I feel a lot of the time its a confirmation bias, somedays i get more yet others i get bad but like dveryone else i can be quick to forget the good days.

Bassically the moral of the story is just get on with the farm and deap with what you got without moaning :-)

Possibly but there are absurdly difficult farms that are known, such as blaze, so that leads me to believe there likely are slightly different drops on "premium" characters

This post has at least two problems.
NyKynoe
6 years ago
No one will be here to convince you.

Record the data yourself and watch the magic happen.