MK 12 Medpac

"Taldek;c-2308696" wrote:
What’s that sample size? 1,000 sims? 10,000? One million?

What’s the drop rate supposed to be for what any given player could reasonably be expected to run? Say 5-10 sims?

And more to my case specifically how many medpacs can I reasonably expect to receive after spending 150 crystals to run 36+ sims?

Hundreds will work, but the more you have the more you approach the actual drop rate.

That is not how drop rates work. There is no such thing as a small sample "drop rate". Statistics are funny like that.

That small sample size will yield varying results.

I've tracked G12 yellow gear drops rates (Medpacs, Multi tools, Bayonets) and in my experience the drop rate is between 13-14%. I have tracked several thousand Sims on each node so it's a pretty high degree of confidence. Some days are better than others, but over a couple months the average is still 13-14%. Purple gear drops at 20%, but these normal node G12 pieces are quite a bit less.

There is a theory that simming 3-4 at a time gives better results. I've done both few at a time and all in one go and can't say for sure if one is better than the other.

In my opinion it doesn't make a difference so just sim as many as you want at a time. I only do lower amount of Sims as I get close to hitting my mark for shards/gear I'm going for otherwise I go max attempts.

"Taldek;c-2310519" wrote:
What I’m trying to say is that I don’t understand how the game works. What are the rules that govern the game?

Thank you to everyone who has posted and for your results. 200 sims of a single node in a couple of days seems unrealistic for the average player but maybe I’m way below average. And I apologize if I use various terminology incorrectly but I hope you’ll understand what I’m trying to say.

Has CG posted anywhere explaining how gear, character, and ship shards are payed out?

Is it a Fixed Probability (or odds or % chance or whatever the correct term is)? Where they enter an attribute of say “20% Chance Per Sim” and that never changes. In this scenario the number of sims you do or the sample size are irrelevant since probability and outcome are two totally different things. The probability will always be 20% every time you sim regardless of what you actually receive.

Is it a Progressive Probability where the game tracks how many sims you run of a node in a given time period. And with each sim you do the probability then increases. Starting at say 0.2% and then 0.4% and then 0.6% etc. In this scenario the sample size matters greatly as you will have reduced drops in the bottom 50% and increased drops in the top 50%. And as stated by others, the closer you get to the sample size the more it will average out. If this is the case we need to know what the defined sample size and time period is to maximize our payouts.

Is it a Class Based Probability where players are put into classes based on how much money they spend in a given time period. We’ll say there’s just four classes. Class A = Whales and Class D = Free to Play. So Class A gets 25%, Class B gets 20%, Class C gets 15%, and Class D gets 10%. In this scenario it could be fixed or progressive but either way community observations don’t really matter unless you’re in that player’s class. And of course players who spend more money are more likely to track their payout results skewing the community observations.

Or is it some other scenario?

As for my original post I was trying to find out if it was worth continuing to sim. I assumed a fixed probability and if it’s set at 20% then I was just having a string of bad luck (which continued for another 25+ sims until I finally got one medpac) I can completely accept that it was just bad luck. But if it’s set at only 1% then I’d be better off buying from a store than continuing to waste energy.

Of course there is also the possibility that this gear piece is/was affected by an update with some weird bug for some bizarre reason but without knowing how CG has actually programmed the payouts how can I know to ask them to check?

So has Capital Games (or E.A.) ever posted/ published how the payouts work? If yes, can someone please direct me where to find it?

If No, could Capital Games post how they work and what the probability or % chance is for each gear, character, and ship etc?

I would think that different gear pieces (as well as characters and ships) are going to have different probabilities. It would be greatly appreciated to know how they are actually programmed.

Thanks

You have a lack of understanding of basic probability. 20% over a large sample size, simply means you need a large sample to ensure the result. At 100 sims you should get close to 20, but at 1000 you will get even closer to the 20%. Past rolls and future rolls do not have any bearing, as you seem to be eluding to.

You can draw virtually no conclusions by observing just a few sims. All anyone is telling you is that, over time, you can expect about 20% drops.

There is some great info here, and I just wanted to add to this a little, you can use a simple experiment to prove what is being said here.

Take a coin, we all know it is a 50% probability of landing on each side.

Flip this coin in sets of 10, as a small sample size you will very rarely get 50% heads/tails.

Then add up your total results from many small samples and you will start to approach 50%.

This is what happens with drop rates. There is no secrets or tricks, just simple probability that works out the way it always does in cases like this.

------
As for your theory, please feel free to track your personal results, many do, and no they are not all spenders. The drop rates have been confirmed by both large groups and individuals.

"DarjeloSalas;c-2310538" wrote:

No they haven’t. But there have been mass data gathering exercises conducted by communities like Planet Coruscant (they have a discord server anyone can join) that have deduced how the payouts work.

Thank you for the direct answer.

Is it a Fixed Probability (or odds or % chance or whatever the correct term is)? Where they enter an attribute of say “20% Chance Per Sim” and that never changes. In this scenario the number of sims you do or the sample size are irrelevant since probability and outcome are two totally different things. The probability will always be 20% every time you sim regardless of what you actually receive.

Yes. This is how all drops work.

Awesome, thanks again. This is what I originally thought it was.

This is pretty much indisputable proof that the drop rates for the gear piece you are talking about is at or around 20%.

Perfect, thank you.

Definitely not. If this was the case, the odds of people getting 5 character shard drops from 5 attempts would be astronomically low, yet we see reports of people getting this regularly. I am surprised that someone who has obviously played the game for some time can even entertain this as a possible scenario.

I agree this is ridiculous and contrary to my personal experience. But since the first answer was not simply just 'about 20%' but instead '20% over a large enough sample' it made me think that the probability was not fixed but somehow contingent on the number of sims. This confused me and I was just trying to make sense of it.

Seriously? I’ve seen a lot of them v us conspiracy theories on these forums, but this one takes the biscuit.

Yes, seriously. I don't understand why a company giving preferential treatment to it's best customers would be conspiratorial. Businesses do this everyday from hotel and airline upgrades, reward programs, complimentary goods and services, to buy backs at bars or comped rooms at casinos. It's a standard business practice. So the possibility that CG might give their best customers preferential drop rates seemed like a logical and reasonable business decision to me.

I recommend joining the Planet Coruscant discord server just to snoop around their data gathering exercises https://discord.gg/NTPZgZp

Thank you for this. This is great, I will definitely explore it.

With the power of community based observation there is no need for CG to publish the drop rates. It can be deduced with high confidence given a large enough body of evidence.

Regardless of the accuracy of the community observation, I think it would be best if CG did publish them but if they haven't by now they probably never will.

One thing is for sure though - if CG did publish the drop rates, there would be vast swathes of the community who would instantly disbelieve them.

This is undoubtedly true.

Thanks again to everybody for all the replies.

What’s that sample size? 1,000 sims? 10,000? One million?

What’s the drop rate supposed to be for what any given player could reasonably be expected to run? Say 5-10 sims?

And more to my case specifically how many medpacs can I reasonably expect to receive after spending 150 crystals to run 36+ sims?

Thanks for the replies, everyone.

My fault I guess was thinking drops would be programmed with a fixed probability. Like a die, no matter how times you roll the die the probability is always the same.

So how do drops work? Is there a post that explains how they are programmed?

And is there an “accepted” way to run sims? Does it make a difference if you sim all at once, one at a time, or something in between?

Thanks.

Right, I get that probability doesn’t equal outcome. You have a 16% chance of rolling a six but that also means you have an 84% of not rolling a six. But the probability doesn’t change with each roll, regardless of how many times you roll or don’t roll a six.The way others are talking about samples etc makes it sound like the probability does change with each roll.

Maybe the problem is I say drop rate thinking it means probability and I shouldn’t have because everyone else sees drop rate as statistical analysis of outcomes.

What I’m trying to say is that I don’t understand how the game works. What are the rules that govern the game?

Thank you to everyone who has posted and for your results. 200 sims of a single node in a couple of days seems unrealistic for the average player but maybe I’m way below average. And I apologize if I use various terminology incorrectly but I hope you’ll understand what I’m trying to say.

Has CG posted anywhere explaining how gear, character, and ship shards are payed out?

Is it a Fixed Probability (or odds or % chance or whatever the correct term is)? Where they enter an attribute of say “20% Chance Per Sim” and that never changes. In this scenario the number of sims you do or the sample size are irrelevant since probability and outcome are two totally different things. The probability will always be 20% every time you sim regardless of what you actually receive.

Is it a Progressive Probability where the game tracks how many sims you run of a node in a given time period. And with each sim you do the probability then increases. Starting at say 0.2% and then 0.4% and then 0.6% etc. In this scenario the sample size matters greatly as you will have reduced drops in the bottom 50% and increased drops in the top 50%. And as stated by others, the closer you get to the sample size the more it will average out. If this is the case we need to know what the defined sample size and time period is to maximize our payouts.

Is it a Class Based Probability where players are put into classes based on how much money they spend in a given time period. We’ll say there’s just four classes. Class A = Whales and Class D = Free to Play. So Class A gets 25%, Class B gets 20%, Class C gets 15%, and Class D gets 10%. In this scenario it could be fixed or progressive but either way community observations don’t really matter unless you’re in that player’s class. And of course players who spend more money are more likely to track their payout results skewing the community observations.

Or is it some other scenario?

As for my original post I was trying to find out if it was worth continuing to sim. I assumed a fixed probability and if it’s set at 20% then I was just having a string of bad luck (which continued for another 25+ sims until I finally got one medpac) I can completely accept that it was just bad luck. But if it’s set at only 1% then I’d be better off buying from a store than continuing to waste energy.

Of course there is also the possibility that this gear piece is/was affected by an update with some weird bug for some bizarre reason but without knowing how CG has actually programmed the payouts how can I know to ask them to check?

So has Capital Games (or E.A.) ever posted/ published how the payouts work? If yes, can someone please direct me where to find it?

If No, could Capital Games post how they work and what the probability or % chance is for each gear, character, and ship etc?

I would think that different gear pieces (as well as characters and ships) are going to have different probabilities. It would be greatly appreciated to know how they are actually programmed.

Thanks