Shard drop rate is toooooo low :(

"GegeGerard24;c-2393528" wrote:

"TVF;c-2393483" wrote:
I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

0/5 to start

Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.

Ooo...so thats how you guys do it...

Sadly, i dont have much crystals to refresh the attemp.
I am new and F2P player.

"New" means i havent been able to participate in those daily side games which give extra crystal everyday.
Like, rank <50 in fleet arena starts to give you 50 crystals everyday.

So...everyday, i stick to the 5 allowed hard battles only.

But then again...how does one explain "2 shards from 12 battles", some days, 0 shard and this is not an exageration...

Except, the RNG probability needs to be upgraded :p

33% drop rate means 67% no drop.

The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected.

The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is
.33x.33 for 10.9%

So 5 in a row of no drops is more likely to happen than a mere 2 in a row of drops.

Why don't you often see 5 drops from 5 attempts? .33x.33x.33x.33x.33 is 0.4% chance of seeing this. Not often. But I have seen it. I've been playing for 5+ years, so I should have.

Someone will likely correct me here, I'm not great on this stuff. Could be wrong.