Y-Wing droprate

"DarjeloSalas;c-2112076" wrote:

"Kyno;c-2112060" wrote:

"DarjeloSalas;c-2112055" wrote:

"MasterSeedy;c-2112025" wrote:
After 2 days, I had spent 1050 crystals (spent 3 x50 refreshes just before the event went live, which was technically the previous day from the game's point of view, then 3x50+3x100 for each live day of the event).

At that point,I was at 43/80, which was just slightly above the listed drop rate of 20% for my 10 energy node (I'm farming gear exclusively)

285 + 360 = 645 = 64.5 attempts/day with 3 days remaining. The final 1/2 attempt won't count for anything, thus...

At a drop rate of 20%, that's 0.2 * 193 = 38.4 new blueprints expected from 450 more crystals.

43 + 38 = 81 blueprints on a total of 1050 + 450 = 1500 crystals.

So, if you pre-spent to load up on fleet energy, you could just barely get to unlock on 1500 crystals. I'm really not sure where anyone got any ideas that it would be cheaper than that.

I get my ideas from me being 53/80 having spent 250 per day for 3 days. If my drop rate maintains, I’ll unlock for 1250.

Not sure why that’s such a stretch?

Well the math puts it higher assuming 2%. It doesnt mean that someone cannot get there, but it is less likely.

144 + 5 days of 240 will equal 26 shards.

The remaining 54 would require 2700 energy.

Or roughly 23 refreshes.

3 a day for 5 days (@50) leaves 8 @ 100

That is a total of 1550.

I am not going to go into the statistics of a bell curve (I'm not that bored), but that 1250 seems reasonable to fall close (ish) to the mean, so maybe not a stretch but definitely less likely. But we cannot tell without the knowing the deviation

That’s fair. I have kept my data and I’m at 54/2440 energy, having indeed gone in with slightly more than 144 (just from collecting the previous day bonus energy, no pre-loading with crystals)

That’s slightly above 2%, so I might find my drop rate normalises and I need to shell out more on day 5.

Yeah, honestly the short period of the event may give it more "variance", as anyone on one side or the other of the mean may not make enough pulls to "normalize".

I usually plot to have less pulls on the last day, it's not always the cheapest way to do it, but less risky, those 200 refreshes can kill your average quick.