Slicing probabilities
The more I slice, the more I suspect the system is rigged.
I have sliced about 20 mods with decent speed secondaries from blue/purple to gold. Only the very first one upgraded speed, the rest all upgraded a variety of other stuff. The chance of this happening is small if the chances are 25% for any secondary rolling an upgrade. And the fact that I am not the only one seeing this kind of "luck" makes my statistical brain go loops.
Is the chance to slice a stat conditioned upon how often it already upgraded? That would make your speed mods less likely to upgrade the more often they have already upgraded. And would be a particularly devious way to screw up the speed mod chances...
My first stab at this was to take the overall distribution of my gold mods. This corresponds very nicely with what I would expect if the upgrade chance was 25%. However, the vast majority of my gold mods are from pre-slicing times, when we are quite confident that the chances of upgrading were indeed uniform.
So we need more data, as I only remember (for sure) 6 of my slices. I have done quite a lot more, but don't remember which mods were sliced and which were already gold, so cannot include them. I have a spreadsheet, which I will keep updated with my slices, and if anybody has their own data, please post it here!
Here are the slices I remember:
1x (4, 1, 1, 1) mod to (5, 1, 1, 1) <-- hell yeah, speed! my first ever slice. from then on it was all useless.
1x (4, 1, 1, 1) mod to (4, 2, 1, 1)
2x (3, 1, 1, 1) mod to (3, 2, 1, 1) to (3, 2, 2 , 1)
To be clear: these are the numbers between brackets before the actual stats on the mods. I am not interested in the stat or the value of that stat, only in the number of times a stat was upgraded before, and after slicing.
I have sliced about 20 mods with decent speed secondaries from blue/purple to gold. Only the very first one upgraded speed, the rest all upgraded a variety of other stuff. The chance of this happening is small if the chances are 25% for any secondary rolling an upgrade. And the fact that I am not the only one seeing this kind of "luck" makes my statistical brain go loops.
Is the chance to slice a stat conditioned upon how often it already upgraded? That would make your speed mods less likely to upgrade the more often they have already upgraded. And would be a particularly devious way to screw up the speed mod chances...
My first stab at this was to take the overall distribution of my gold mods. This corresponds very nicely with what I would expect if the upgrade chance was 25%. However, the vast majority of my gold mods are from pre-slicing times, when we are quite confident that the chances of upgrading were indeed uniform.
So we need more data, as I only remember (for sure) 6 of my slices. I have done quite a lot more, but don't remember which mods were sliced and which were already gold, so cannot include them. I have a spreadsheet, which I will keep updated with my slices, and if anybody has their own data, please post it here!
Here are the slices I remember:
1x (4, 1, 1, 1) mod to (5, 1, 1, 1) <-- hell yeah, speed! my first ever slice. from then on it was all useless.
1x (4, 1, 1, 1) mod to (4, 2, 1, 1)
2x (3, 1, 1, 1) mod to (3, 2, 1, 1) to (3, 2, 2 , 1)
To be clear: these are the numbers between brackets before the actual stats on the mods. I am not interested in the stat or the value of that stat, only in the number of times a stat was upgraded before, and after slicing.
