"Double" drops should have an asterisk next to it!

I would marry this thread if the law allowed it.

"Nikoms565;c-1963542" wrote:

"7AnimalMother;c-1963284" wrote:
These threads are pointless.

Neither the people arguing that they changed or didn't change have any evidence to back it up.
The only people who have any evidence is the employees at EA (and likely very few of them at that).

Everything in this game is done at EA's whim. By playing this game, you are essentially agreeing to take at face value whatever they state drop rates are.

Could they advertise "double drops" and then halve the drop rate? Absolutely they could. They are not regulated for gambling, so they have no independent auditors overseeing them.

Would they do it? Who knows... Anyone who makes a freemium game is at least a little scummy in my mind, so I wouldn't put it past them. Couple the profit motive with no oversight, and I could certainly see it.

But if they did, it doesn't matter because you can't prove it. As others have pointed out, the data of 20, 40, or even a 100 people on the forum isn't a sufficient sample size to prove anything given a player base somewhere around a million or more.

Search is your friend. Entire guilds have tracked drop rates - and yes, during "double drops" and events. When people track the data over a decent enough sample size, the results and drop rates are always the same - 30-33% for shards, 20% for gear (purple anyway). ALWAYS.

Add to that fact (yes, fact) that the developers have repeatedly stated that drop rates don't change. Ever.

There's a lot of things that CG /EA do with this game that I am not necessarily a fan of - but they don't manipulate drop rates. And people who suggest they do are simply too lazy to actually track the data over a respectable sample size.

If you say so. Search seems to just find a lot more anecdotal evidence and confirmation bias one way or the other, so I think your talking out of your butt.

Bottom line. We all play at EA's whim; so it doesn't matter.

"7AnimalMother;c-1963961" wrote:

"Nikoms565;c-1963542" wrote:

"7AnimalMother;c-1963284" wrote:
These threads are pointless.

Neither the people arguing that they changed or didn't change have any evidence to back it up.
The only people who have any evidence is the employees at EA (and likely very few of them at that).

Everything in this game is done at EA's whim. By playing this game, you are essentially agreeing to take at face value whatever they state drop rates are.

Could they advertise "double drops" and then halve the drop rate? Absolutely they could. They are not regulated for gambling, so they have no independent auditors overseeing them.

Would they do it? Who knows... Anyone who makes a freemium game is at least a little scummy in my mind, so I wouldn't put it past them. Couple the profit motive with no oversight, and I could certainly see it.

But if they did, it doesn't matter because you can't prove it. As others have pointed out, the data of 20, 40, or even a 100 people on the forum isn't a sufficient sample size to prove anything given a player base somewhere around a million or more.

Search is your friend. Entire guilds have tracked drop rates - and yes, during "double drops" and events. When people track the data over a decent enough sample size, the results and drop rates are always the same - 30-33% for shards, 20% for gear (purple anyway). ALWAYS.

Add to that fact (yes, fact) that the developers have repeatedly stated that drop rates don't change. Ever.

There's a lot of things that CG /EA do with this game that I am not necessarily a fan of - but they don't manipulate drop rates. And people who suggest they do are simply too lazy to actually track the data over a respectable sample size.

If you say so. Search seems to just find a lot more anecdotal evidence and confirmation bias one way or the other, so I think your talking out of your butt.

Bottom line. We all play at EA's whim; so it doesn't matter.

You can trust your fellow players that have crowd sourced the data or not, but the data is out there for those who don't refuse to take off the tin foil hat

16000 sim data set, 95% confidence interval of 32%-34% on character shards. If you go to the google sheet listed in the first comment, you will find their 126000 sim data set which has a 95% confidence interval of 33.15-33.67.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/comments/ckb8kn/character_shards_droprate_15k_observations/

Much smaller sample, but this is Cantina specific showing a 33% drop rate over 2700 attemtps
https://www.reddit.com/r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/comments/5uywkd/cantina_drop_rates_a_75_day_and_counting_study/

First comment here has 17k, 34k, and 6k attempts at purple (20 item and 50 item) and gold gears, plus a bonus tracking of Stun guns.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/comments/7zkm45/drop_rates_for_purple_gear/

It's weird how one side presents data and the other side claims neither side has data.

"7AnimalMother;c-1963961" wrote:

"Nikoms565;c-1963542" wrote:

"7AnimalMother;c-1963284" wrote:
These threads are pointless.

Neither the people arguing that they changed or didn't change have any evidence to back it up.
The only people who have any evidence is the employees at EA (and likely very few of them at that).

Everything in this game is done at EA's whim. By playing this game, you are essentially agreeing to take at face value whatever they state drop rates are.

Could they advertise "double drops" and then halve the drop rate? Absolutely they could. They are not regulated for gambling, so they have no independent auditors overseeing them.

Would they do it? Who knows... Anyone who makes a freemium game is at least a little scummy in my mind, so I wouldn't put it past them. Couple the profit motive with no oversight, and I could certainly see it.

But if they did, it doesn't matter because you can't prove it. As others have pointed out, the data of 20, 40, or even a 100 people on the forum isn't a sufficient sample size to prove anything given a player base somewhere around a million or more.

Search is your friend. Entire guilds have tracked drop rates - and yes, during "double drops" and events. When people track the data over a decent enough sample size, the results and drop rates are always the same - 30-33% for shards, 20% for gear (purple anyway). ALWAYS.

Add to that fact (yes, fact) that the developers have repeatedly stated that drop rates don't change. Ever.

There's a lot of things that CG /EA do with this game that I am not necessarily a fan of - but they don't manipulate drop rates. And people who suggest they do are simply too lazy to actually track the data over a respectable sample size.

If you say so. Search seems to just find a lot more anecdotal evidence and confirmation bias one way or the other, so I think your talking out of your butt.

Oh, and here's a couple more:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/comments/9l0vbj/finished_my_first_single_hard_node_farm_sabine_i/

https://www.reddit.com/r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/comments/6tvur9/my_old_benz_farming_statistics/

Sorry if actual facts and objectively tracked data get in the way of "fake news bombs" and name calling. Some people are adult enough to admit when they are mistaken. Some bury the head and in the sand (or pull their tin foil hat down harder so it covers their ears) so they can't hear the truth.

It's one thing to be lazy and not look up the data for yourself - but it's an insult to your fellow players who have actually taken the time and done the work to ignore the data they've spent hours collecting or pretend it doesn't exist.

I suspect that if you own a bear you get better rates on drops. Nothing in the data contradicts this either.

EDIT: I am strongly considering purchasing one for the better drops. I'm currently weighing it against the cost of housing and feeding the bear, and also the risk of it eating one of my kids. Could go either way tbh.

"BobcatSkywalker;c-1964270" wrote:


I'm not seeing any linkage to the amount spent and when it was spent for each player...

I'm not denying that drops are 30%, but also it's possible they are better if you spend and I haven't seen any data that looks at the difference in drop rates related to amount spent and when it was spent.

Seems like people keep presenting data that doesn't address the issue then act like that proved something

Depends on what you think the issue is. There is nothing in the OP alleging that the issue is different drop rates for f2p vs. paying players. People have all sorts of theories about how they think drops are manipulated, all different, and none supported in any way.

"BobcatSkywalker;c-1964270" wrote:
Correct the data doesn't prove anything about double drops or a difference between drops for p2w and f2p...

Some lines of data are 5 of 7 or 7 of 10 drops... are these sims from p2w players?

Others are 2 of 16 or 1 of 15, are these sims from f2p?

Maybe the same person bought a crate and went 50% on farming for 7 days then after 7 days his drops go back to 30%

I'm not seeing any linkage to the amount spent and when it was spent for each player...

I'm not denying that drops are 30%, but also it's possible they are better if you spend and I haven't seen any data that looks at the difference in drop rates related to amount spent and when it was spent.

Seems like people keep presenting data that doesn't address the issue then act like that proved something

If you want to prove your theory about drop rates and amount spent, your first step could be to simply contact the players, who tracked their drops and posted them, and ask them how much they had spent at the time of tracking. Please post your results.

I'm aware it's not shards this time, but the drop rate definitely changes. I went from getting 3-5 gear pieces out of 10 sims to getting 4 for 29 and 1 for 20 on my most recent sims.

Unlucky would be it happening 2 maybe 3 times. This is something i've noticed since in "double" drops for awhile now. Every single time i've dropped from about 25-30% avg drop rate to a 10-15% drop rate. I've actually done the math over an extended period of time so keep your opinions out of it. I've also had some good drops but then as FolsomTony shows you go right back to zip