"Reyalp;c-1792229" wrote:
"Azudelphi;c-1792208" wrote:
"Reyalp;c-1792201" wrote:
"Azudelphi;c-1792182" wrote:
"Reyalp;c-1792176" wrote:
"Azudelphi;c-1792168" wrote:
"Reyalp;c-1792100" wrote:
It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.
What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)
Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.
And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...
Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days
Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.
It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight :/ . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)
6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.
Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.
As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks :s
If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.
Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.
Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!
I don't know what you mean. I think you're missing my point or I'm not being clear.
I'm talking farming from Guild Store, which is what most of this is about, and the rate he appears. Not other sources (I'm not personally using them unless it's the weekly store for creds and I'm not including the percentage chance of him dropping on ewok events or at the end of GW cause that's a different story :/ ). Also consider, I like most, have probably used crystals on farming the plethora of stuff thrown at us recently rather than refreshing guild store.
The question is simply is 'logray in the shop?' there's a 16% chance it's yes, 84% chance it's no. That's meaningless in terms of 'i got him at a 16% drop rate' cause it makes no sense - the odds of logray on that shard is 16% because it's based on him being 1/6 toons on rotation.
If the rotation is fixed where logray appeared 1/6 instances then you would get 5 shards every 2 days. It's not fixed tho, so it could be any other of the 5 toons and I could get a run where I see the same one lots. If I saw Rey 4/6 instances, her drop rate would be 66%. That would then mean the other 5 toons drop rates have fallen to 6% each.
Okay... i think you are confused. The rate of him showing up is 16% or 1/6. That's what you would expect to see if you looked at the data over time.
Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).
This is just statistics of independent events...
